Wednesday , October 21 2020

Today’s Ratings and Market Movers 09/06/19

Trust me, it was a good decision well made yesterday.

I had finalised figures for all races, based on the going descriptions I had to hand the evening before racing and we would have had three winning races from the 10 I’d worked on.

We’d have taken a hiding.

I have not had an opportunity to watch the racing back yet but I’ll be doing so this evening.

What I have looked at though are the results. They were very much as expected…or unexpected (take your pick). I note they ended up with 17 non-runners at Haydock, three different changes in the going at Beverley (during racing), 20 non-runners at Chepstow and another 10 at Newmarket.

Yep, any misgivings I might have had about not sending work out on a Saturday were quickly dispelled….the correct decision had been made.

Before I left home yesterday I’d been chasing to Andy about the situation I found myself in on Friday afternoon. I think everyone knew the weather situation but if you were sitting there waiting for me to send out a “bin it” message, and played when you didn’t get one, then you have my apologies.

What I have advised Andy I’m doing from today is adding text to the GOING GUIDE section. It explains how I arrive at  decision to “bin”.

It is not rocket science.

In that section you have the going as declared, when I finalised my work. If we had good to firm and it goes good to soft, you take a decision on whether or not to bin the Ratings.

I use 11 criteria for flat racing and eight for NH racing, to arrive at the figures you see next to the horses in each rated race. In both cases the main ingredient is the ground these horses have displayed their best form on.

If we lose the ground, those figures are severely compromised.

I cannot produce ratings for every potential ground description situation. I might make a decision to bin my work because the ground has gone from good to soft, but still have a top rated horse that is also suited to the ground as it is when they race…..like JABBAROKIE a few days ago.

I sent out a message to bin as the ground had changed and more bad weather was about to hit the track, but he still won. Had I rated the race based on the new going description (I did that evening), he still came out top rated.

In an ideal world we’d have a going description that never changes but obviously, we’ll never have that situation. But when we do have a going description that remains as it was when my figures have been put together, then we get the results we need to make a profit.

The sheer volume of racing we have during the summer means that, if we have the rain we saw hitting the tracks as we did on Friday, our chances of winning anything are practically zero and we’ll take a massive hit.

Thankfully this happens rarely but what we’ve seen this season so far is two days when the plug should have been pulled, it not being done and AG’s Profit/Loss balance is around £600 short of where it should be.

That is just two days losses.

TODAY

I had been of a mind not to send work out again today and for sure, you ain’t getting anything from Goodwood!

The last going update they have provided dates back to the Neolithic period and they have advised a going stick reading will be provided by 10-00am this morning….what use is that??

They further advise they had 24mm of rain on Friday, with a going description as of 7-15am on Friday, of soft. Add 24mm of rain to soft, what do you think we have? It’s all a bit Blue Peter, and me trying to make a rated race out of sticky back plastic and an old Fairy Liquid bottle!

Perth though, has told us it’s soft, they didn’t get as much rain as expected, saying this:

“Cloudy. 8mm rain Wednesday, 1.5mm Friday: 1mm Saturday Low pressure moves from the south bringing wind and some rain. Up to 5mm which is less than originally forecast Sunday a mix of cloud and sunny intervals high risk of showers locally heavy up to 5mm”

However, the going stick reading, whilst not quite Neolithic, requires carbon dating…..taken Friday morning.

As you can see from the text they have posted on the BHA website, they expect 5mm of rain so this is potentially a situation we don’t want. They may have already had 5mm, another 5mm still to come.

I have produced four rated races from that track. You now have a decision to make….play, or stay away.

I know what I’m doing, and that’s going for a walk.

Have a great day!

Kindest regards

Ron

MARKET MOVERS
PERTH

2-45 – DIABLO DE ROCHET – 7/2 > 5/2
4-25 – RED GIANT – 8/1 > 9/2
4-25 – VAN GOGH DU GRANIT – 15/2 > 5/1
5-30 – KEEN ON – 9/4 > 7/4

TODAY’S RATINGS AND ADVICE

MARKET MOVERS IN RATED RACES HIGHLIGHTED

PERTH 2-45  – 2m4f  (2m4f20y) Heineken UK Handicap Chase  (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-130)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A

* – RAINY CITY….+10
TH – SUNSETSTORISE….+9
* – ARGENTIX….-8
* – VOIX D’EAU….-18
T – DIABLO DE ROUHET….-29
T – COPPER WEST….-39
T – QUEST FOR LIFE….-40

NOTES:

PERTH 3-20 – 2m  (2m47y) Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle  (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-120)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A

GOLDENCARD….+9
T* – SLEEPY HAVEN….+9
T – OROMO….-2
* – GREEN ZONE….-4
* – ROYAL RESERVE….-6
LADY SAMBACK….-25
* – GOLDEN JEFFREY….-19
ZAMARKHAN….-40
ARDERA CROSS (BF)….-40

NOTES:

PERTH 4-25  – 3m  (2m7f180y) Sam Morshead Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chase  (Class 2) (5yo+)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A

T* – VAN GOGH DU GRANIT….+20
* – INDIAN TEMPLE….+11
T – RED GIANT….+11
GET OUT THE GATE….+9
T – OUT SAM….+9
WT* – DRAGON D’ESTRUVAL….-1
CHIDSWELL….-6
TRADITIONAL DANCER….-9
W2HT* – CRESSWELL LEGEND….-13
T – GOT AWAY….-30

NOTES: This is a seriously good race but, my third highest rated horse requires genuine good ground. He got away with good to yielding at Wexford many years ago now but all wins since have been with just nice, good ground underfoot. If they go soft here, he’s running in divers boots.

My top rated horse goes on anything so happy to keep him there.

The current favourite is GET OUT THE GATE who is unbeaten in two runs over fences but, again, is (on all current evidence), a good ground horse. He has beaten just five rivals in his two chases to date and this’ll be a completely different test.

We’ve a Kim Bailey trained runner rated -13, that is wearing more icons than an old Inca priest but I’d be happy with my top rated whatever happens.

PERTH 5-00  – 3m  (2m7f207y) Lodge At Perth Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier For The Northern Lights Stayers Hurdle Series)  (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-120)

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A

* – PRESENCE FELT….+13
T – DARLING MISS….+9
T* – IT’LL DO RIGHTLY….-27
CHANCEITON….-40
W2HT – GOLAN WARRIOR….-40
ALWAYS TIPSY….-40
T – OSCAR CEREMONY….-40
EYRESHILL….-40
T – OPECHEE….-40

NOTES:

About Ron.Robinson

Ron.Robinson

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