Right now where I am, it’s a lovely morning but, if you are south, in particular south east, then you know what is coming your way.
I have been looking at weather reports for the rest of this week and it’s dire, especially for those of you living right down the east coast of England.
We are apparently stuck in a “jet stream pincer movement”, that isn’t going away and all I’ve seen flood warnings for many parts of the country but, as I say, more for those down the eastern side of the UK.
If you live south east then today certain areas are due to get 60mm of rain….that’s a months worth in one hit. As that moves north, which it is going to do, it gets worse and forecast is 80mm for some areas of the north east.
I then sat here and prepared 10 rated races for you, stopping shy of introducing the going aspect to them, waiting for this morning to do that.
I took these words from the BHA website, as provided to them by each of the tracks racing today.
Tomorrow – Chance of light showers throughout day, remaining overcast, Temp +15c.
Monday- dry morning with continuous rain from midday max temp 14 c.
Rain expected on Sunday night and into Monday.
Monday: starting dry but rain developing through the day, possibly heavy at times.
The “hot topic” right now is going changes….I’ve bored Karen to death and yesterday we met up with one of our members (morning again, Owen!), and on what was a lovely day, I spoke of rain!
You will have all seen for yourself yesterday what happens when I produce my work and it stays dry:
PERTH 2-45 – 2m4f (2m4f20y) Heineken UK Handicap Chase (Class 3) (5yo+ 0-130)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A
* – RAINY CITY….+10
TH – SUNSETSTORISE….+9
* – ARGENTIX….-8
* – VOIX D’EAU….-18
T – DIABLO DE ROUHET….-29 – WON 2/1
T – COPPER WEST….-39
T – QUEST FOR LIFE….-40
REVIEW: We have a Market Mover outside my top three and bingo, a losing race becomes a winning race.
PERTH 3-20 – 2m (2m47y) Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-120)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A
T* – SLEEPY HAVEN….+9 – 3RD 8/1
T – OROMO….-2 – 2ND 13/2
* – GREEN ZONE….-4
* – ROYAL RESERVE….-6
* – GOLDEN JEFFREY….-19
ARDERA CROSS (BF)….-40 – WON 40/1
REVIEW: A great result for those BF stats but no good to us as we were done a short head.
PERTH 4-25 – 3m (2m7f180y) Sam Morshead Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A
T* – VAN GOGH DU GRANIT….+20 – 2ND 11/2
* – INDIAN TEMPLE….+11 – WON 7/1
T – RED GIANT….+11
GET OUT THE GATE….+9
T – OUT SAM….+9
WT* – DRAGON D’ESTRUVAL….-1
W2HT* – CRESSWELL LEGEND….-13
T – GOT AWAY….-30
NOTES: This is a seriously good race but, my third highest rated horse requires genuine good ground. He got away with good to yielding at Wexford many years ago now but all wins since have been with just nice, good ground underfoot. If they go soft here, he’s running in divers boots.
My top rated horse goes on anything so happy to keep him there.
The current favourite is GET OUT THE GATE who is unbeaten in two runs over fences but, again, is (on all current evidence), a good ground horse. He has beaten just five rivals in his two chases to date and this’ll be a completely different test.
We’ve a Kim Bailey trained runner rated -13, that is wearing more icons than an old Inca priest but I’d be happy with my top rated whatever happens.
REVIEW: Karen and I were sitting in the Sea Shanty at Trearddur Bay, when Andy let me know the result of this race. I said to him that this race was the reason I had produced figures for Perth at all. I’ll be honest, I genuinely believed my top rated would win this….but he failed by just a short head.
A winning race, none the less and I gave myself a pat on the back.
PERTH 5-00 – 3m (2m7f207y) Lodge At Perth Racecourse Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier For The Northern Lights Stayers Hurdle Series) (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-120)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A
* – PRESENCE FELT….+13
T – DARLING MISS….+9 – WON 7/4
T* – IT’LL DO RIGHTLY….-27
W2HT – GOLAN WARRIOR….-40
T – OSCAR CEREMONY….-40
T – OPECHEE….-40
REVIEW: My figures suggested only one of two horses realistically had a chance of winning this and we enjoyed three winning race from four rated.
A short head stopped us having a full house yesterday…..and it had stayed dry.
Andy sent over the screenshot that has helped me make a decision this morning:
A lovely profit enjoyed and that’s all I want to see (I hate red numbers).
Now compare that again to Friday’s Screenshot:
I winced when I saw that. It should not have happened and I’m now going to make sure (as best I can), it never happens again.
The problem the majority of you have is that you receive my work and place your bets before leaving for work, or going out to do whatever you are up to on a given day. As Owen said to me yesterday as we chatted, he has had days when he has placed his bets, gone to work, then received a “bin it” message from me, which has had him tearing his hair out.
After the Screenshot arrived, I then received an e-mail from Astech Gold, which related to the text I have applied to the Going Guide section of the Newsletter:
“At Astech Gold we make decisions for investing based on data and statistics. Due to our requirements for insurance purposes we can only analyse and then indicate or identify bet types or selections as issued from third parties.
To that end we cannot make arbitrary decisions based on anything we think should be done to third party information unless directed to by that third party.
Post Racing provides information which we evaluate to conclude the bet types, which we have based on our accumulated data, which we than then place on the Latest Information page.
If we receive a ‘binning’ message from Post Racing before or during a meeting due to a change in the weather and therefore the going, we will show this against the meetings and races affected, on the LI page if possible.
Any races that have already taken place will appear on the screenshot and the remaining races, if there are any at those meeting(s), will not be included.
If we do not receive, for whatever reason, a ‘binning’ message, we will include all races that have been listed on the LI page and they will appear in the screenshot submitted to Post Racing at the end of the day.
For those that have asked us we hope this clarifies our position on this issue and we thought we should let you all know.
The Astech Gold Team”
I fully “get” this.
Their expertise is their expertise, calling shots like “binning”, is mine.
I’ve therefore taken the decision to “bin” before my work goes out, if I’m aware we “will”….not “if”….have a going change.
This does not mean that every time rain is forecast I’ll not send figures out. What I’ll be doing is assessing the situation, take into account all the forecasts available to me and make an informed decision. I think it’s pretty clear that, give the forecast for today and perhaps the rest of this week, binning these 10 races is prudent.
What I expect to see because of this decision is more peaks than troughs and, therefore, more profit accumulated when it is safe to dip our toes in.
If I sent you these 10 races today I’d spent my entire day being asked by Karen, “why are you so quiet?”.
I do not want to spend the next 15 hours worrying about your betting banks.
On Saturday I probably saved AG something in the region of that figure they lost on Friday. I never want to see -£300 ever again!!
I don’t want to see a minus figure again, full stop!!
So, I’ve decided to say, “it’s my decision alone as to when to bin”. It’ll save you any concerns on that front.
From tomorrow, for the rest of our week here, it’s set to rain….no racing on Anglesey so, no problem!
I’ll prep my figures for tomorrow, I’ll get up at 5-00am again tomorrow morning, then if needs be, the message you will receive is, “binned”.
If I’m confident we are fine to play, the figures will be produced.
You’ve no idea how good that feels now, having made this decision.
WHAT ABOUT MARKET MOVERS?
As you know, this is a new feature, only introduced this year but which is proving a very accurate guide to many races, rated or otherwise.
I’m of a mind I can still provide you with these although, what we will find, is that when we have adverse weather, the majority will not raise theirs heads above the parapets until after 10-00am.
If we see something shifting markedly overnight, with people betting with the knowledge a going change is most likely, then fair to say that horse is “off”.
This is what I’ve got today:
2-15 – SANTANI – E > 4/6
4-30 – VASILIEV – 13/8 > 4/7
5-30 – OLD RED EYES – 8/1 > 11/2
5-45 – JAMES WATT – 5/1 > 3/1
6-45 – FAR ABOVE – 11/8 > 8/13
8-15 – QARASU – 8/11 > 2/5
8-45 – LEO DAVINCI – 12/1 > 6/1
7-05 – SHALLOW HAL – 14/1 > 8/1
7-35 – CALIBURN – 3/1 > 6/4
? ROYAL ASCOT ?
During my chat with Owen yesterday I mentioned to him a very pertinent fact regarding Royal Ascot.
When we get a week of dry weather and good to firm ground, the vast majority of winners will be priced shorter than 10/1.
I’ll find most of those for you which, in turn, produces profit.
After tomorrow the weather looks to be in our favour down there, with very small percentage chances of rain through to Sunday
If you have any questions regarding any of the above, please get back to me. I’m pretty sure though that you will be as much relieved as I am that we’ll now only be betting when we are most likely to obtain a profit.
Have a great day.