Crazy, isn’t it.
Fortunately we do not get many weeks like this.
It is now like a cloud has descended on Anglesey and the lovely view of Caernarfon Castle from the living room window has been gone for the last 24 hours.
I sat down after dinner last night to see what we have to work with. My first port of call was the BHA website for information on ground and the respective weather forecasts from the five tracks racing today….or perhaps not.
Only Newbury isn’t holding an inspection today and with that news I simply shut everything down and put the kettle on.
I’m not about to put the profits in jeopardy betting on racing taking place on ground best suited for planting rice. I’m all about making a profit from my betting and not just betting and so I’ll not send out work that is up in the air.
You have to remember racecourses now have to race, regardless of conditions, as they need the revenue. We don’t have to bet on it though.
I had a message from a member based in Nottingham last night….”Hi Ron, thought I’d let you know the Kon-Tiki has just floated past my window here in Nottingham ….. and I live on the third floor !! Bin !! It has rained the entire day.”
That rubber stamped the decision regarding that track, then.
What we see when we have ground like we have now, are races that are run for about two or three furlongs of the trip they are due to run over. The form of these races going forward is worthless….unless they get these conditions again….which, hopefully, they won’t.
You can watch a race develop from around the three furlong pole after the field, having raced in a group for the first however many furlongs previously, starts to attempt to quicken.
Some can, some simply start moving on the spot, as “wheel spin” kicks in.
The good news is, this goes away from today. I’m not sure that is going to help us for the coming weekend as it’s going to take several days to dry out again but fingers crossed Royal Ascot starts on at least genuine good ground….we’ll then have the temperatures to give us quicker ground as the week progresses.
Andy got up from his sick bed last night to send out the screenshot.
A small loss on the day and Andy had added the note, “a nothing day”….spot on, that’s exactly what it was.
I had watched the markets of those races I’d advised Market Movers.
7-00 – PRINCESS PALLISER – 7/1 > 9/2 > 10/1
This one drifted to a price close to 50% bigger than the opening show yesterday and finished 6th of the seven that raced.
4-40 – HARDTOROCK – 13/2 > 11/2 > 4/1
The money kept coming for this one on course, which was strange considering the horse only wins on good or quicker ground and the rain didn’t stop there until nearly 3-30pm, and the going had got slower?
On good to soft or slower, the horses form figures read: P, 8, 6, P, P, P, 5…..so why the money for it?
3-20 – LORELINA – 4/1 > 2/1 > 4/1
The on course market got this right as LORELINA drifted (opened 9/4 but went off 4/1), whilst the winner HULCOTE, was punted from 8/1 > 11/2.
5-20 – BEATBYBEATBYBEAT – 5/1 > 7/2 > NON-RUNNER
2-30 – TOM TULLIVER – 3/1 > 7/4 > 9/4
Opened 11/4 on course, attracted more money, went off 9/4 and won.
3-00 – SEVENTII – 4/1 > 11/4 > 5/1
3-00 – BUXLOW BELLE – 20/1 > 8/1 > 5/1
This race rubber-stamps the decision not to rate Class 6 races. SEVENTII finished 3rd, BUXFORD BELLE finished 7th and the race was won by a horse punted from 25/1 > 12/1, that had never even placed in eight previous starts, had raced more on all weather tracks, and was racing from out of the handicap “proper”
In fact, six of the fourteen runners were out of the handicap and three of them filled the first four places. How can anyone work with such races?
TODAY’S MARKET MOVERS
2-30 – QAMKA – 13/8 > E
3-00 – TEREBELLUM – 11/8 > 8/11
3-35 – SOD’S LAW – 4/1 > 5/2
4-40 – SAPA INCA – 8/1 > 7/2
The last named was sent out as one of my Tracker 20 at the start of the season.
It should have been a completely manic day, with meetings talking place at Chepstow, York, Sandown, Newton Abbot, Aintree and Goodwood….
35mm rain Friday 7th. 16mm Rain Monday. 2mm yesterday. Forecast: Light rain this morning, dry afternoon, rain overnight (5-10mm) Thursday-Rain first thing (5-10mm), showers in the afternoon and overnight. Friday-sunny spells with scattered showers.
Rainfall of 10mm Tuesday night followed by 1mm during Wednesday making 12mm this week. Met Office forecast; Cloudy with outbreaks of rain on Wednesday night and into Thursday clearing Thursday evening.
60mm rain Monday. Staying unsettled this week until Friday, with showers possible on both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
24mm of rain since Fri-Mon. 48mm rain Monday. Dry forecast today, light rain/showers Thursday. Degree of uncertainty about where these will fall, forecasts vary from 4-30mm possible.
20mm Saturday, 2mm Sunday, 8mm Tuesday. 26mm in last 24 hours Wednesday – rain cleared. Cloudy and dry through day, rain overnight into Thursday 14mm +. Breezy 15C Thursday – rain clearing 8am 6mm+, cloudy with brighter spells, showers pm 14C Friday – cloudy, brighter spells with showers 2mm 14C
24mm rain on Friday. 11.8mm rain on Monday One light shower yesterday (0.8mm). Mainly dry with some light showers about for today and tomorrow.
My feeling is that it’s going to be Sunday before I produce Ratings again. We got that rated race right yesterday and it produced profit. Given the decision I made at the start of the week regarding banning before the Newsletter goes out, it’s sensible to assume we’ll have bad ground until at least Sunday but we’ll see.
If Saturday offer us something then great but, looking at the weather forecasts provided by the five tracks racing tomorrow definitely doesn’t.
I like my golf and quite often have a few quid on two or three players in the big tournaments. Molinari produced me a big pay out last year and I had a couple of others, too.
You’ll need to be good with your irons this week and nobody is better than Tiger with an iron. I’ll have a few quid on him.
I’ve been following Patrick Cantlay all year and he’s another that’ll carry a few bob and my third against the field is Xander Schauffele.
Koepka is looking to win his third US Open on the trot but nobody does that and for that reason alone, I’d not touch him this week…..not sure his iron game is up to it, to be honest.
At a bigger price, Tony Finnau….he has made top four in the last six majors he has contested, and finished 5th in last years US Open so he’s got the game.
Happy with my three though.
Have a great day.