Another successful day of punting but it could, and should have been better.
A lot of work and hours have been spent both where I am and where the midnight oil burners of AG are, looking at how we can improve on what we are doing now….which is seriously good….but make it even better.
Saturday was the day decisions were made to look at the data that has been accrued, analyse it, make decisions and stick with them.
As I mentioned in the morning e-mail on Saturday, I myself was going to be extremely selective with regards how I played that lot. There was far to much racing, the jockey pool was stretched to snapping point and it just all felt very messy.
That was how it proved and those that played every race got a bloody nose.
Something I mentioned to Andy at AG was that I felt we’d get little or nothing from York. I can read a race correctly and analyse a draw bias with the best of them but what I cannot do is produce a figure for a horse like GULLIVER, who had won just once on turf and that nearly three years previous.
After all the work that had been done on this I knew…and my guess is Riz and Andy knew, which races would give us most problems yesterday. Andy they did.
The first race at Pontefract…..we failed by a neck to land that one but the winner could not have been rated any higher than I had him. Last win was two years ago on good to soft ground but yesterday he found his form again.
The other race we knew would be troublesome was the Windsor 8-45pm.
Now, I’m not bad at what I do but when you see a result like that you know that if you had 10,000 attempts at finding that 1, 2, 3, you could never do it.
When a 3-y-o, that had only ever run on turf twice previously (and finished last both times), pops up at 33/1, you know you are not visiting the pay window.;
The runner up….now he’s even funnier!
One run on turf, finished 13th of 14 in a Class 6 at Brighton and was having just his fifth career start at the age of four.
Came home second @ 40/1….he should have been 4000/1….and I’d still not have even considered betting.
What did both races have in common?
Both consisted of more than 10 runners.
Riz has been crunching the numbers at AG Towers and Andy sent me the evidence that we now need to look at working only with races of 10 or fewer runners.
That is actually something I’ve instinctively done in the past and these are the figures that tell us how working with field sizes of more than 10 runners, since the turn of the year, have had an effect on profits
From to day, I’ll produce figures for races of 10 or fewer runners only.
Yesterday, had we not included the Pontefract 2-00pm and that Windsor 8-45pm we would have increased the profits produced by around £140. As it was….and whilst still a very nice profit….we came away with this:
You can be assured monitoring will still take place on many aspects of what we do and we’ll tighten things up even further as we go along.
It has most certainly become apparent that less is more!
The one “constant” with horse racing and especially doing what I do, is the knowing that nothing remains “constant”. We have to look at things regularly and often and long, long gone are those days of 2013 when all we needed to do was punt the top rated horse.
It’s what makes this game so interesting.
Let’s see how we get on today. I’ll post up the two races I have worked on, consisting of more than 10 runners (6-00pm Chepstow, 7-45pm Stratford), on the Forum…..should be up by 10-00am….and we’ll keep monitoring them from there.
Have a great day!
2-00 – HEDGING – 6/1 > 9/2
3-00 – CLARION – 6/4 > E
4-00 – CRYSTAL TRIBE – 11/8 > E
2-45 – BRUTALAB – 6/1 > 9/2
2-45 – FITZY – 13/2 > 9/2
2-45 – BLACKSTONE CLIFF – 10/1 > 11/2
3-15 – SPIRITUAL BOY – 12/1 > 15/2
6-00 – WATCHMYEVERYMOVE – 13/2 > 5/1
7-45 – DU DESTIN – 14/1 > 9/1
MARKET MOVERS IN RATED RACES HIGHLIGHTED
HAMILTON 4-15 – 1m½f (1m68y) Almada Mile Handicap (for the Watson Memorial Cup) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE
* – NICHOLAS T….+13
T* – BROTHER MCGONAGALL….+12
3* – VICTORY COMMAND….+10
3T* – COOLAGH FOREST….-9
T* – MIKMAK….-10
NEVER BE ENOUGH….-33
T – NONIOS….-40
STRATFORD 7-15 – 2m1f (2m213y) Skinner’s Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – N/A
* – I’DLIKETHEOPTION….+15
* – REGULATION….+15
* – DANDRIDGE….+10
* – ADRRASTOS….-5
* – INK MASTER….-17
* – ATLANTIC STORM….-25
* – MULLINAVAT….-35