Tuesday , November 10 2020

The Badger Beers Silver Trophy profiled

The start of the season “proper”, for me, starts with this race.

I thought I’d make it my first fully profiled race of the season and hopefully between these words and tomorrow’s numbers, we are somewhere close to finding the winner.

I’ll start as I usually do with age groupings. In the last 10 years no horse older than nine has won this race and, only one horse aged younger than seven so, with nine of the last 10 winners aged 7-9, that will be my first shortlist:

  • DANNY WHIZZBANG
  • POTTERMAN
  • SOME CHAOS
  • EL PRESENTE
  • CHAMPAGNE COURT
  • COO STAR SIVOLA
  • COBRA DE MAI
  • SUPREMELY LUCKY
  • JUST A STING
  • IRISH PROPHECY
  • SIZING AT MIDNIGHT

Next I’d be looking at weight ranges and we do see a wide spread here. Only one horse though has carried less than 10st 6lb to victory in the last decade and nothing has carried more than 11st 9lb in that same period of time so, taking all that into account, we prune that list above:

  • POTTERMAN
  • SOME CHAOS
  • EL PRESENTE
  • CHAMPAGNE COURT
  • COO STAR SIVOLA
  • COBRA DE MAI
  • SUPREMELY LUCKY
  • JUST A STING
  • IRISH PROPHECY
  • SIZING AT MIDNIGHT

Market position next. Only one winner has come from outside the front six on the tissue in the last 10 years and so those currently outside that range get their wings clipped now:

  • EL PRESENTE
  • CHAMPAGNE COURT
  • JUST A STING
  • POTTERMAN

Favourites have a funny old record in this. only five of the last 10 have actually completed the race but those that have, have form figures reading 1, 2, 1, 1, 1

Six of the last 10 winners actually occupied one of the front two places on the tissue, at the off.

Next I’m looking at how a horse had to have performed in its last race and with seven of the last 10 winners having won (5), or placed (2), it would seem to be the case you need to have shown some form.

That would narrow it down to a pair:

  • EL PRESENTE
  • POTTERMAN

Right now I’m still of a mind stable form counts for a lot and with Alan King (POTTERMAN), having a strike rate of just 5-51, his horses showing a 35% RTF (running to form), and Kim Bailey having saddled seven runners from his last 27 runners in the last two weeks, and his horse running to a 52% RTF, I would have to post up EL PRESENTE as the Profile selection.

Of course, it would be no shock at all to see Nicholls take this race again. he has won the last three running’s of the race, twice with PRESENT MAN, who will possibly go off favourite to win it for a third time.

I love DANNY WHIZZBANG and he turns out under last years winning jockey, racing first time following a wind-op.

Both are outside the weight range stated above and as a 10 year old, and you have to go back 20 years to find the last horse to manage to win it having turned 10 years of age, and before that it was PANTO PRINCE in 1993.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION:

EL PRESENTE – 20/80

About Ron.Robinson

Ron.Robinson

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