Thursday , November 12 2020

The Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase Profiled

This will not be as easy as the Badger was last weekend, although some might say finding that 1-2 was pretty darned difficult!

The last 10 winners of this were priced 20/1, 8/1, 8/1, 7/1, 10/1, 12/1, 8/1, 25/1, 8/1, 14/1….and the form figures of the last 10 favourites read 3, 6, P, 0, 3, 0, P, P, 4, F

I’ll start with age grouping, as I always do.

Eight of the last 10 winners were aged seven, eight, or nine. We have had one five year old winner, and one six year old winner. However, that five year old was one of only 10 to have taken part in the last decade and two other have placed.

That points to a big run from the favourite, SAINT SONNET, trained by Paul Nicholls, who was responsible for the only five year old winner, CAID DU BERLAIS, in 2014.

I’m just going to play the Profiling from the stats I have and my first shortlist consists of horse aged seven, eight, or nine:

  • SIMPLY THE BETTS
  • AL DANCER
  • SLATE HOUSE
  • HAPPY DIVA
  • SIRUH DU LAC
  • SPIRITOFTHEGAMES
  • DOMAINE DE L’ISLE
  • BRELAN D’AS
  • KAUTO RIKO
  • FIDUX
  • PINSON DU RHEU
  • THE RUSSIAN DOYEN
  • COOLE CODY
  • SKY PIRATE

Next it’s weight range and the last 10 years has seen horse winning right across the spectrum of 10st – 11st 13lb but, in the last eight years it has been noticeable that six have carried between 10st 11lb and 11st 11lb. I’ll prune that first list, removing those that fall outside those ranges:

  • SIMPLY THE BETTS
  • AL DANCER
  • SLATE HOUSE
  • HAPPY DIVA
  • SIRUH DU LAC
  • SPIRITOFTHEGAMES
  • DOMAINE DE L’ISLE
  • BRELAN D’AS

Down to eight.

Market position, this early, is always a bit dicey but it worked last weekend so here goes nothing!

In the last 10 years, even though we’ve had a couple of huge priced winners (so you know now, that can happen!), principally the winner will be in the front eight on the tissue. Of those in that second list sitting ninth best in the market right now, it’s the shepherds crook:

  • SIMPLY THE BETTS
  • AL DANCER
  • SLATE HOUSE
  • HAPPY DIVA
  • SIRUH DU LAC

Down to five.

Four of the last 10 winners managed to win this on seasonal debut and two of those were trained by Paul Nicholls….another plus for the current market leader who is simply to young, and favourite!

That means six had already raced in the season in which they won this race and, that includes the last four winners.

I’m therefore removing seasonal debutantes from that list of five:

  • AL DANCER
  • HAPPY DIVA

I’d be happy dutching that pair.

If I were looking for one to play singly, then it would have to be last years winner, HAPPY DIVA. The reason for that is, the last winner of this that arrived having won on it’s latest start was JOHN’S SPIRIT in 2013.

Am I as confident here as I was last week? No but, Kerry Lee sent this horse for the same race at Wetherby before coming here for this, two weeks before the event. He has had his pipe opener and should be ready to go.

It will all be academic if that five year old is as good as CAID DU BERLAIS but we have what we have and I’ll put up last years winner as this years Profile selection:

HAPPY DIVA – 20/80

About Ron.Robinson

Ron.Robinson

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