Friday , April 16 2021

Cheltenham Special – Thursday

Why am I more annoyed with what happened SCEAU ROYAL than I am about FIDDLERONTHEROOF placing @ 40/1? I must be getting greedy.

I know from e-mails received that many punted the 33/1 winner of the 2-30pm race, based on Ratings (I never had a penny on it), but the most obvious stat we need to concentrate on is the fact the Irish had six winners today and our horses are simply way behind them.

The Profiling below would seem to be telling us that it will be exactly the same again, tomorrow.

I hope you are enjoying reading what is coming out, as much as I am producing it. I love picking my way through these minefields and seeing the odd one or two correct paths taken.

We wont win them all and this year, with so many short priced favourites, I’m inclined to go a little abstract with my selections because I simply will not post up selections like MONKFISH.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and, good luck tomorrow.

CHELTENHAM SPECIAL – DAY 3

MARSH NOVICES’ CHASE

I ask myself, should I waste time trying to get ENVOI ALLEN beaten, or just look for one to again place at a price that produces a profit?

If all horses run to there optimum, then nothing gets within 10 lengths of the long odds on favourite. It’s a long time since I saw a horse fence as well as he does, and have the number of gears he has.

Irish trained horses have won eight of the last 10 running’s of this, and five of the last six. In the last six years no horse priced longer than 4/1 has succeeded here and that actually accounts for eight of the last 10 winners. It’s no good looking for an upset of gigantic proportions because if the favourite fails, it is going to be the second or third favourite that picks up the pieces.

What could happen (I do not think it will), is that the second or third favourite might try to win, and run out of legs, giving a longer priced horse a place….in all honesty, unless you have money to burn, you just watch a great horse win this before taking on MONKFISH in next season’s Gold Cup.

PERTEMPS FINAL HANDICAP HURDLE

The first of three good handicaps I can get stuck into.

Six, seven and eight year olds are the age groupings to concentrate on. They have produced the winner of eight of the last nine running’s so it’s a common sense place to start:

  • THE BOSSES OSCAR
  • BRINKLEY
  • DANDY MAG
  • IMPERIAL ALCAZAR
  • ASK DILLON
  • COPPERHEAD
  • STORM ARISING
  • CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
  • SOUTHFIELD HARVEST
  • ANYTHING WILL DO
  • GETAROUND
  • MRS MILNER
  • REDFORD ROAD
  • COME ON TEDDY
  • STORM GODDESS
  • EVERGLOW
  • MILLINER

That has got rid of seven.

Weight ranges next and only one winner of this has carried less than 10st 10lb in the last 10 years and that actually came 10 years ago so, anything carrying less than that weight will be culled. I’m seeing no inconvenience is being asked to carry a weight as three of the last seven winners carried 11st 11lb or more.

  • THE BOSSES OSCAR
  • BRINKLEY
  • DANDY MAG
  • IMPERIAL ALCAZAR
  • ASK DILLON
  • COPPERHEAD
  • STORM ARISING
  • CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
  • SOUTHFIELD HARVEST
  • ANYTHING WILL DO
  • GETAROUND

Market next.

For such a competitive race, it’s probably surprising that only two of the last 10 winners started bigger than 14/1 and those of you who were using my work in 2014 will remember well our nailing CAPE TRIBULATION @ 14/1.

Anything in that list above, trading bigger than 14/1, now gets snipped:

  • THE BOSSES OSCAR
  • BRINKLEY
  • IMPERIAL ALCAZAR
  • CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
  • SOUTHFIELD HARVEST

Down to just the five.

The winner of this could also be found trading amongst the top six on the tissue and all currently qualify because SOUTHFIELD HARVEST is 14/1 co-sixth favourite.

Only two favourites have managed to win this in the last 10 years and another pair have come home in second place. I’m not sure I want to be with the current favourite, IMPERIAL ALCAZAR. It is so tight at the head of the market though that they might flip flop….nowt I can do about that though so, for the purposes of this exercise, he’s gone:

  • THE BOSSES OSCAR
  • BRINKLEY
  • CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
  • SOUTHFIELD HARVEST

A four horse dutch is not a ridiculous play in a race like this and that’s what I’ll suggest but, most out there want me to pinpoint one to just have a fun bet on. Fair to say the Irish have got this boxed off now and they’ve won the last five running’s of it.

The only Irish trained horse in that quartet is THE BOSSES OSCAR, probably the unluckiest loser at last years Festival.

He is trained by Sneezy Elliott, who has won the last three running’s and was earmarked last season as “one of interest” this time around and he’s my 20/80

DUTCH

  • THE BOSSES OSCAR
  • BRINKLEY
  • CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM
  • SOUTHFIELD HARVEST

20/80

THE BOSSES OSCAR

RYANAIR CHASE

My first shortlist here kicks off with a list of seven, eight and nine year olds, although fair to say that seven year olds are holding the aces with five wins in the last eight years but we’ll go back to that if we need to do so:

  • ALLAHO
  • FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES
  • IMPERIAL AURA
  • MELON
  • MISTER FISHER

They all carry the same weight and so it’s straight across to the markets and with just one winner of this bigger than 8/1 in the last 10 years, and I’m also only interested in those sitting front three on the tissue as eight of the last 10 of those 10 winners did so. I can very swiftly get us a much shorter list:

Five standing their ground at this point.

  • ALLAHO
  • IMPERIAL AURA
  • MELON

That’s the dutch.

The Irish have developed a habit of winning this race, too and they have both ALLAHO and MELON in that trio so I’ll be going with one of those….but which one?

It has to be ALLAHO. Simply because all of MELON’s winning has been done at two miles. I could be forgiven for thinking though that, with the drying ground, MELON, who is a superb jumper of a fence, will give him a right old race.

DUTCH

  • ALLAHO
  • IMPERIAL AURA
  • MELON

20/80

ALLAHO

STAYERS HURDLE

Last year we had the 50/1 winner of this in my NH 20 to Follow and I’ll wear that badge with pride!

Since we lost BIG BUCKS, this has become a bit of a minefield. In the eight years since that superstar won it, we’ve seen winners at 17/2, 15/2, 14/1, EVENS, 10/1, 12/1, 11/8 and that 50/1 satchel filler last year.

You look at the race and think to yourself it has to be PAISLEY PARK. But he’s now a 9-y-o and nothing of that age has won since 2013. He’s also favourite and only two of those have won since BIG BUCKS pulled of the feat in 2012.

He is the most likely winner but….he was last year too, and was sunk without trace.

I’ll start with a shortlist of six, seven and eight year olds because they have won eight of the last 10….if we are going to profile, we cannot let the “bleedin'” obvious get in the way.

  • BEACON EDGE
  • FLOORING PORTER
  • FURY ROAD
  • LISNAGAR OSCAR
  • MAIN FACT
  • RESERVE TANK
  • VINNDICATION

The winner has though, still been positioned in the front four on the tissue in seven of the last 10 running’s and so I’ll work with that to get a dutch going:

  • FLOORING PORTER
  • FURY ROAD
  • VINNDICATION

That’s the dutch sorted out then but again, you are most likely looking for that 20/80 or E.W. play.

I’m happy to stick with the home guard here, as the Irish lads seen to struggle with this one. GB based trainers have won seven of the last 10 and so I’m putting the onus on Kim Bailey to stop this trophy going across the Irish Sea

DUTCH

  • FLOORING PORTER
  • FURY ROAD
  • VINNDICATION

20/80

VINNDICATION

PADDY POWER PLATE CHASE

This used to be impossible to solve with winners between 2011 and 2015 going in at 25/1, 50/1, 12/1 and 33/1 but in recent years it has got easier….16/1, 14/1, 5/1F, 9/2, 10/3F….and that has also coincided with the six and seven year old horses coming to the fore. Before 2017 this was going to mostly nine year olds, those winning this in 2013, 2015 and 2016, with an eight year old winning it in 2014….the very well Pipe plot BALNAGOUR romping in @ 12/1.

If I’m right, then we run with those younger age groups and the first shortlist comprises of six and seven year olds:

  • CARIBEAN BOY
  • ASSEMBLE
  • FARCLAS
  • FILS D’OUDAIRIES
  • LASKALIN
  • KILTEALY BRIGS
  • SULLY D’OC AA
  • SMARTY WILD
  • MAYPOLE CLASS

Weight ranges come next and I’m looking between 10st 6lb and 11st 6lb….anything carrying more, or less, is removed:

  • ASSEMBLE
  • FARCLAS
  • FILS D’OUDAIRIES
  • LASKALIN
  • KILTEALY BRIGS
  • SULLY D’OC AA
  • SMARTY WILD

Two gone. Next, market position. Those at the head of the tissue have, right through the last decade, performed well. The favourites have failed to finish in three of the last six running’s but when they do, their form figures read 3, 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1 ….I’ve discounted the current tissue favourite because he is an eight year old. However, having won at Kelso, they are chasing a huge bonus pot with THE SHUNTER.

For me though, I have to keep on running with my thread and so, those in that group, in the front three on the tissue:

  • FARCLAS
  • FILS D’OUDAIRIES

A two horse dutch. I’m going to run with FARCLAS for the 20/80. He won the 2016 Triumph Hurdle and so we know he handles Cheltenham. He runs for Sneezy Elliott who has saddled six for this in the last 10 years, won one and placed in another.

DUTCH

  • FARCLAS
  • FILS D’OUDAIRIES

20/80

FARCLAS

MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE

I only have five previous running’s of this, all five won by a Mullins mare and so I cannot wax as lyrical as I might like.

In the first three years he sent out the favourites to win, then he planted a 50/1 shot in the winners enclosure, followed by CONCERTISTA last season, third favourite.

When that 50/1 shot won, I recall simply advising you work with the Mullins mares and someone reading this now was on.

So…the Mullins Mares:

  • GAULOISE
  • GLENS OF ANTRIM
  • HOOK UP
  • PONT AVAL

Jockey booking suggest GAULOISE as the most likely winner but your guess….and that is what it would be working as I do….would be every bit as good as mine.

Probably best waiting for the morning Newsletter and seeing if the OMM’s suggest anything.

FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE

Look no further than seven and eight year olds. They have won eight of the last 10 running’s and, the last five. You know what is coming next:

  • MOUNT IDA
  • STORM CONTROL
  • DESIE ABA
  • HOLD THE NOTE
  • CLOUDY GLEN
  • PLAN OF ATTACK
  • MILANFORD
  • MUSICAL SLAVE
  • DIDERO VALLIS
  • MORNING VICAR
  • YOUNG DEV

Weight ranges again up next. The last 10 winners have all carried 11st or more and so we lose just the one:

  • MOUNT IDA
  • STORM CONTROL
  • DESIE ABA
  • HOLD THE NOTE
  • CLOUDY GLEN
  • PLAN OF ATTACK
  • MILANFORD
  • MUSICAL SLAVE
  • DIDERO VALLIS
  • MORNING VICAR

Given the nature of this race, in that it is usually amaterus taking part, the market has got it pretty much right. Eight of the last 10 winners were in the front six on the tissue and so, any of those priced silly, leave now:

  • MOUNT IDA
  • DESIE ABA
  • HOLD THE NOTE
  • PLAN OF ATTACK
  • MUSICAL SLAVE

Down to a nice looking five.

I do not want to be with the favourite because not a one of those has won this since 2012 but, I do want to be with the second and third favourites, as they have won this in four of the last six years.

  • MOUNT IDA (7/1)
  • DESIE ABA (8/1)
  • PLAN OF ATTACK (8/1)

A sensible three horse dutch.

Given the dominance of the Irish trained horses so far at this Festival, I’m looking to one of MOUNT IDA/PLAN OF ATTACK for the 20/80.

The Irish have won the last two running’s and three of the last five, two of those going to Gordon Elliott’s stable and his representative here (even if the name on the licence currently says Sneezy), is MOUNT IDA. That will be the selection.

DUTCH

  • MOUNT IDA (7/1)
  • DESIE ABA (8/1)
  • PLAN OF ATTACK (8/1)

20/80

MOUNT IDA

About Ron.Robinson

Ron.Robinson

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