Wednesday , June 9 2021

Today’s Rating’s and OMM’s 17/05/21

Before I even consider finalising ratings for any race today, I want the very latest going stick reading and right now Carlisle and Windsor have Saturday’s on the BHA website, Redcar do not have one at all and Leicester’s was produced before breakfast yesterday. At nearly 6-00am on the morning of racing, that’s not good enough.

I’ve produced the OMM’s for you and there are several that have been seriously moving overnight. Yesterday I got my gardening done, put the beef in the oven and all before racing started so I sat and watched the markets….no betting, just watching.

In the first race at Ripon, I had indicated to you that BOLTON ABBEY was strong….and it was….until “they” started piling into EVER GIVEN. In the 20 minutes before the off they heaved as much on as they could, it became a strong favourite, BOLTON ABBEY drifted out to 3/1 before returning 11/4 and the late mover won very easily.

The 2-05 was a weak Class 6 event but it didn’t stop those who “knew” getting on board that 18/1 winner. VELOCISTAR opened 33/1 and again, in the 30 minutes before this race went off, I’m sitting here watching the move….25/1, 22/1, 20/1….won cosy enough @ 18/1. The trainer was interviewed and the reason given for this improvement in form was, “the filly was suited by the soft, heavy in places going”….of course it was.

Now this next one I’d spotted early, told you about it in the Newsletter, IRIS DANCER 20/1 > 17/2 in your morning Newsletter. This was division 2 of that Class 6 and by the time the market opened 25 minutes before the off, it had been punted even more….opened 11/2. Missed the break, got bumped but still came through to win.

Another I’d spotted in the 4-05, RUMAYTHAH….13/2 > 4/1 in your morning Newsletter….won 4/1.

After that I shut everything down and turned on the TV to watch the Liverpool game but on checking back later noted the winner of the 5-05pm has been punted 11/4 > 15/8f, won by two lengths, returning 2/1.

No, again like I have said, they will not all win but the last two days at Ripon and Thirsk, we’ve seen the markets producing rabbits from hats that formlines, speed ratings etc could never have found.

My plan now is to get a bowl of porridge, get the screens up and monitor the markets until 10-00am. I’ll let you know what I find in a second Newsletter plus, if I’m happy with the going forecasts and going stick reading offered up, I’ll produce those rated races listed below. I’m prepped and ready so, that should only take me a couple of hours to finalise.

SEAN’S ON FIRE!

In the Podcast Sean and I were looking at the racing at Naas that took place yesterday. In the 4-10pm we both fully expected the favourite to win it but Sean also gave a good word for HERMANA ESTRELLA. He was very much thinking about it as one for the future and he may well be right….it won the darned race @ 50/1!

He also provided listeners with the winner of the next race and advised listeners that the runner up could also be expected to run well.

His 50/1 e.w. Byron Nelson selection Charl Schwartzel landed the place portion of that bet when he tied third in Texas, that following on from his 20/1 winner last weekend. I thinkl we could all do with a nosebag full of what he’s eating right now!

Best of luck today!

OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVERS

How to use Market Movers

A number of trends emerged and if, after applying the Rated Races and Bottom Rated Favourites criteria, there are still only 3 selections in your Dutch, then a Market Mover may be introduced to make a Dutch 4 bet. For those Market Movers that are not in Rated Races, consider using Market Movers based on price and market movement, adjusting your staking levels accordingly. Of course, you can use the Market Movers in whichever way suits you and concentrate solely on those to straight win or, to 20/80.

COLOUR CODING

ORANGE = NEW MOVER

PURPLE = STRONG OMM

LIGHT BLUE = DRIFTER

(UPDATES AVAILABLE FROM 11-30AM)

CARLISLE

  • 1-00 – FOREVER BRIGHT – 66/1 > 20/1
  • 1-35 – TOMILY – 3/1 > 7/4 > 5/2
  • 1-35 – VENTURA FLAME – 3/1 > 5/2 > 11/4
  • 1-35 – BALLYARE – 7/1 > 5/1 > 11/1
  • 1-35 – JOSHUA R – 20/1 > 7/1
  • 2-10 – NEVER IN PARIS – 10/1 > 7/1 > 6/1
  • 2-45 – JUMP THE GUN – 7/4 > 11/10 > 7/4
  • 3-55 – WIZARD D’AMOUR – 7/2 > 7/4 – NR
  • 5-00 – FLOOD DEFENCE – 4/1 > 11/10 > 15/8

REDCAR

  • 1-20 – TREVOLLI – 5/1 > 11/4
  • 1-55 – LASTING LEGACY – 8/1 > 11/2 > 5/1
  • 1-55 – VINDOBALA – 6/1 > 4/1 > 6/1
  • 3-05 – CHIEF’S WILL – 9/4 > 13/8
  • 3-40 – WIGANESE – 7/1 > 15/8
  • 3-40 – JUBILEE ROAD – 7/2 > 5/2
  • 4-15 – EEH BAH GUM – 5/1 > 7/2 > 13/2
  • (3) – 4-15 – ARMY OF INDIA – 8/1 > 6/1 > 13/2
  • 4-15 – KIND REVIEW – 9/1 > 7/1 > 7/2
  • 4-15 – LOOK OUT LOUIS – 7/1 > 9/2
  • 4-50 – SYMBOL OF HOPE – 6/1 > 7/2 > 4/1
  • 4-50 – NAVAJO SPRING – 8/1 > 5/1 > 9/2
  • 4-50 – ELZAAL – 12/1 > 8/1
  • 4-50 – SHE’S A DIVA – 11/1 > 9/1

LEICESTER

  • 5-35 – SCHOOL OF THOUGHT – 7/2 > 15/8
  • 6-35 – BASHOSH – 4/1 > 15/8
  • 7-05 – ABLE KANE – 5/1 > 11/4
  • 7-05 – SPANISH STAR – 7/1 > 11/2
  • 7-35 – IN THE BREEZE – 18/1 > 7/1
  • 8-05 – SHARPCLIFF – 11/1 > 8/1

WINDSOR

  • 5-20 – OLYMPIC THEATRE – 10/1 > 7/1
  • 8-20 – NEWBOLT – 9/2 > 3/1

FFOS LAS

  • 1-45 – ANIMAL – 7/1 > 3/1
  • 2-20 – MONSIEUR LECOQ – 11/4 > 2/1 > 7/4
  • 3-30 – FINANCIAL OUTCOME – 7/1 > 11/2 > 5/1
  • 3-30 – BILLY BRONCO – 8/1 > 6/1
  • 3-30 – MONTANNA – 5/1 > 3/1

IRISH TURF MARKET MOVERS

NONE TODAY

WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

TODAY’S RATINGS

CARLISLE 1-35

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

UPDATE:

CARLISLE 2-10

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS BRF

SCRIBBLINGS:

UPDATE:

CARLISLE 2-45

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

UPDATE:

REDCAR 4-15

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

  • * – EEH BAH GUM….+3
  • (OMM), * – KIND REVIEW….-7
  • W2, * – MILITIA….-16
  • (OMM), 3 – ARMY OF INDIA….-33
  • * – LOOK OUT LOUIS….-34
  • WRENTHORPE….-37
  • (OMM) – SAVALAS….-40
  • DARK SHOT….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS: Traditionally won by a horse aged 5+ (oldest winner to date was aged seven), carrying more than 9st but not more than 9st 7lb. Five of the eight winners to date were located in the front three on the tissue. As I have been typing the OMM’s, with the exception of KIND REVIEW, have been drifting….it’s going to be one of those days. I’m now seeing money for LOOK OUT LOUIS 7/1 > 9/2 and it’s all starting to get farcical out there.

My best advice is leave it all alone today.

UPDATE:

LEICESTER 7-05

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS BRF

SCRIBBLINGS:

UPDATE:

WINDSOR 6-20

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

UPDATE:

WINDSOR 7-20

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – M – H – L

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

UPDATE:

WINDSOR 8-20

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – M – H – L

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

UPDATE:

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