Thursday , December 2 2021

The lads are back in the saddle and Ron has one you simply have to tune into on Saturday!

For those hard of hearing Ron is now producing a transcript of what his thoughts were on each race discussed during the Podcast

FRIDAY

DUNDALK 7-15

Between 2011 and 2014 this was won by three 5 year olds with no winner bigger than 6/1 but since 2015 it’s been won by horses aged 8, 7, 10 and we even had a Dascombe trained juvenile winning it in 2019….subsequently ran 5th at the 2019 Breeders Cup.

Six of the last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged 4 or 5 and, interestingly, 5 of the last seven winners have been trained this side of the Irish Sea.

We’ve still only seen one winner priced bigger that 6/1 and so I’m thinking that I’m going to have a home based 4 or 5 year old onside, aged four or five, trading 6/1 or shorter.

The only horse coming close to qualifying is the 3-y-o DANDALLA and I’ll suggest a small 20/80.

The stats horse, without a doubt, is HARRY’S BAR….8-16 on that surface, 4-9 over the trip and 3-5 at the track. He must run a big race.

RON DANDALLA 20/80

SEAN – MAY SONIC

SATURDAY

NEWBURY 2-00

Juveniles running on heavy ground….all the punting appeal of betting on a coin toss. This will be the third consecutive year they have raced on heavy.

In the last 10 years we’ve had no winning favourite but seven of those 10 winners have gone off 2nd or 3rd favourite. Only one favourite has even placed in the first three, in the last seven years.

The last three winners had not raced more than three times before heading here and I’d say trends and early tissues suggest one of HOO YA MAL or LIGHT INFANTRY wins this. If I could ever bring myself to play flat racing in October, I’d dutch that pair.

NEWBURY 2-35

We had eight consecutive winners aged 3 and 4 between 2011 and 2018, with 3-y-o’s winning five.

On Saturday we have just one three year old taking part, SISKANY.

Eight of the last 10 winners were located in the front three on the tissue and right now they would be SISKANY, MAX VEGA and ILARAAB.

The market right now is suggesting SISKANY is a pretty strong favourite as they go 13/8 that one, then 13/2 bar.

I’m not sure I’d want to be taking that short a price about a horse that has never raced on heavy ground and in ILARAAB I see a horse with course winning form and distance winning form, trained by Haggas, who has sent four runners for this race, won with two, placed with one and I’m thinking 20/80 ILARAAB.

RON 20/80 ILARAAB

SEAN – SISKANY

NEWBURY 3-10

Shoot me now.

We have 12 juveniles, none of which has raced on heavy ground before, none having course winning form on their CV’s and none having won more than once over this trip. I’ll have nightmares tonight now.

Only five previous running’s, no tissue to look at and the last winner of this won on debut @ 18/1

That winner was trained by Roger Charlton who has saddled a total of six for this in the past, won with one, placed with another so I’m just going to put up JUMBLY as a 20/80.

Charlton has a 21% strike rate with 2-y-o’s at Newbury and a level stake profit of £30.37 to a £1 stake so I’ll suggest JUMBLY.

RON – JUMBLY

SEAN – JUMBLY

DONCASTER 3-15

Yet another juvenile race but being a Group 1, this should be a bit like shelling peas (although we did have a 12/1 winner last year).

Normally your looking for a lightly raced type….no more that three runs….in the front three on the tissue and, with six winning favourites, four trained by Aiden O’Brien, and his LUXEMBOURG looks like he’s the proverbial glove.

Currently clear favourite on the tissue @ 5/4, he is the lightest raced of the three topping the market, arrives unbeaten and I’m definitely tuned in to LUXEMBOURG….straight win.

RON – LUXEMBOURG

SEAN – NO BET

DONCASTER 3-50

And another juvenile race…. it’s that time of year.

This went to Ireland for the first time last year, when the exposed LIPIZZANER won @ 10/3.

Five of the last eight running’s of this race have gone to horses that were fancied…. that 10/3 winner the biggest of those five winners and all the stats do point to FLAMING RIB justifying favouritism this time around.

It’s currently around 12/1 bar one of the favourite or DEODAR winning this race but the latter has been drifting since this market opened 4/1 > 6/1….it’s FLAMING RIB for me I’m afraid.

RON – FLAMING RIB

SEAN – FLAMING RIB

CHELTENHAM 4-05

I FEEL LIKE SOMEONE HAS JUST GIVEN ME A BIG, WARM HUG!!

Ok, a proper look at this….Scribblings a plenty!

I want nothing younger than five, and nowt older than seven onside here. They have accounted for eight of the last 10 winners.

I’m thinking weight range between 10st 6lb and 11st 7lb and with regards market position I’ll say we do not want anything to do with the favourite, as only two have won this but, whilst we have seen winners priced 20/1, 16/1 and 12/1 the winner is usually in the front six on the tissue.

The qualifiers and the dutch are:

  • PANIC ATTACK
  • BUTLERS BRIEF

Given PANIC ATTACK is 0-2 ground and, more importantly, 0-2 at Cheltenham. I’ll say 20/80 BUTLER’S BRIEF, as he also fits the seasonal debutantes trend.

Three of the last four winners took this on seasonal debut and whilst his win in May constitutes this season, I’m going to say he’s been off long enough to qualify!

RON – 20/80 BUTLER’S BRIEF for me.

SEAN – E.W. PUSH THE TEMPO

OMMS

The best three OMM’s produced in the last week were:

3 – RAFFERTY – 10/1 > 4/1 – WON 10/3F

2 – CLAYMORE – 25/1 > 8/1 – WON 13/2

1 – ONE FORTY SEVEN – 25/1 > 11/2 – WON 9/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEEKEND

RON – LUXEMBOURG in the Futurity at Doncaster – the 3-15pm race there.

SEAN – NOBLE TRUTH in the Horris Hill – Newbury 2-00

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The lads are back in the saddle and Ron has one you simply have to tune into on Saturday!
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