Thursday , December 2 2021

Stopped in their prime by internet issues but lots to work with this weekend!

Just as Ron and Sean were building up a head of steam Ron’s internet cut out as Openreach chose totally the wrong moment to do work on the local junction box!

However, you’ve all of their flat races discussed and just as Ron was about to tell you THOMAS DARBY was his 20/80….

This is Ron’s text, with Sean’s selections added, for all races discussed today

PODCAST RACES

FRIDAY

NEWMARKET 2-30

13 Juveniles racing on autumn ground but this should be relatively easy to solve given recent trends….if they “stick”.

No benefit to be gained from looking at age or weight trends but two things can be worked with and they are market position, and what a horse did last time out.

Only two previous winners have been located outside the front four on the tissue and right now they would be:

  • DESERT DREAMER
  • BENEFIT
  • PENNINE HILLS
  • RED LACEWING

Six of the last 10 winners of this arrived having won, as did three of the last five and of that quartet I’d pluck BENEFIT, who arrives unbeaten after two runs, and RED LACEWING, as they are the only pair, in the front four on the tissue, having won last time out.

A dutch hopefully produces a profit but if I have to post up a 20/80, it’s BENEFIT. She is 1-1 on the ground….the only horse in here with winning form on it, and 2-2 at the trip

RON – BENEFIT 20/80

SEAN – DESERT DREAMER

SATURDAY

NEWMARKET 2-58

Yet another juvenile Listed event. I did mention last week that it’s that time of year and here, we have 14 going to post.

It’s also another were age and weight ranges are null and so I’ll just work as I did with the race tomorrow and look at market position and form coming into the race.

The last 11 winners could have been found in the front four in the market on seven of the 11 times this has been run but we did have a 20/1 Haggas debutante winning it in 2019.

Arriving having won last time out also seems to have the same importance as Friday’s race, five winners having that on their CV’s, including three of the last five.

Favourites also tend to run big races as they have won four and finished runner up on another four occasions.

Newmarket yards have had great success in recent years, four of those last five years being trained local.

I do not have a tissue right now but if I did, I’d be expecting to see WITH THE MOONLIGHT trading front four, she arrives having won her last two races, is Newmarket trained and at this point in time she is my selection.

RON – WITH THE MOONLIGHT

SEAN – WITH THE MOONLIGHT

NEWMARKET 3-33

The first race I have without a juvenile in sight and it’s down to five runners. Nearly £30k to the winner and trainers cannot be bothered supporting it. Bonkers.

I’ve no age group preference as we’ve seen four 3-y-o’s, four aged 5+ and two aged four winning this in the last decade. They all carry 9st or more so no trend there but if what has gone on in recent years holds up, the winner will be sat front two on the tissue and whilst this is an assumption, I imagine that pair will be BAY BRIDGE and MAJESTIC DAWN.

The interesting runner is MONTY, who comes over from France and is ultra-consistent, winning six and placing in five of his 17 careers starts to date.

I’m with BAY BRIDGE and would back him to finish his season unbeaten and give the younger horses their fifth win and third in succession, following on from LORD NORTH and FREYJA.

RON – BAY BRIDGE

SEAN – BAY BRIDGE

NEWMARKET 4-08

A HINT OF A CONUNDRUM.

Older horses, those aged five, six or seven have won six of the last 10 running’s, but horses aged three and four have won four of the last nine, including the last two.

Three year olds have an awful record so I’d be ruling out DANTE’S PASS, JADOOMI and STAR OF ORION and I’d rule out OH THIS IS US, SAFE VOYAGE and STORMY ANTARCTIC because they are over the hill as far as this race is concerned.

Eight of the last 10 winners were front two on the tissue and nine of them carried 9st or more so in essence I’m looking for a horse aged 4, 5 or 6, carrying 9st or more and trading front two on the tissue.

I’ve again no tissue to work with but expect ZANOUSKI to trade favourite and win. His trainer, Charlie Appleby, has saddled six for this, won with three, placed with two others. He has also won two of the last four running’s of the race.

I’d be in straight win

RON – ZANOUSKI

SEAN – DANTE’S PASS 20/80

WETHERBY 1-55

Horses aged 6+ are the way to go here. Four year olds won three years on the bounce between 2012 and 2014, but they have been firmly put back in their box ever since.

You need to be carrying 10st 12lb or more and they all do. You also need to be front three on the tissue as nothing in the last decade has won from outside that trio. Nothing has sprung a shock here.

The three to work with are:

  • MIRANDA
  • MOLLY OLLYS WISHES
  • MARIE’S ROCK

I’ll suggest, therefore, the winner’s name begins with an M

They are priced to dutch and make a small profit but if I were looking to go 20/80 on one, it would be MOLLY OLLYS WISHES. Dan Skelton has trained five for this in recent years, won with one, placed with two

I’ll run with the Skelton horse.

RON – MOLLY OLLYS WISHES

SEAN – ZAMBELLA 20/80

WETHERBY 2-30

The return of PAISLEY PARK and he has opened up favourite, although out a quarter of a point from his opening show.

Age trends are no use whatsoever as we’ve had everything from a five year old to an 11 year old winning this and definitely nothing dominant.

Weight ranges too are becoming a tad muddied with but I’m thinking I do not want anything carrying more than 11st which rules out Paisley Park.

Eight of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less and two of the last four winners were carting below 11st.

Market position tells me we do not want to be with a horse outside the front four on the tissue but as only two favourites have won, I’d again be putting PAISLEY PARK to one side.

That means I’m thinking one of:

  • THOMAS DARBY
  • MASTER TOMMYTUCKER
  • INDEFATIGABLE

Definitely priced to dutch for a profit if I’m right about PAISLEY PARK.

The last named won on the flat recently and comes here fighting fit, but he is 0-2 at the trip. The other pair have never even tried the trip.

MASTER TOMMYTUCKER is trained by Paul Nicholls and his record in this is amazing….entered seven, won with three, placed with three but this horse is a 10 year old and only one of that age has placed from the four that have tried. He opened 4/1 and has been easy to back, now around 11/2.

I’m going to suggest THOMAS DARBY as a sporting 20/80. He has won or placed in eight of his 11 runs over hurdles and his third to THYME HILL at Aintree in April was a cracking good run.

Not confident at this point in a season but I’ll have him 20/80

RON – THOMAS DARBY 20/80

SEAN – PAISLEY PARK

WETHERBY 3-05

If I was going to name a day that starts my season, other than Badger Day, it would be Charlie Hall Day.

Only seven going to post but I’m really looking forward to it.

CYRNAME is a very short priced favourite but anyone taking 6/5 about a horse that has more letters than numbers next to his name recently, is mad.

We know the horse is brilliant on his day, but how can you tell when it’s going to be his day? He won this race last year arriving with a letter next to his name so maybe 6/5 is gold dust?

Here’s a stat for you. Only three 6-y-o’s have tried to win this in the last 10 years….and all three won. The only 6-y-o in here on Saturday is FUSIL RAFFLES. The winning most age grouping is nine, with four of the last 10.

You need to be carrying between 11st and 11st 6lb as nine of the last 10 winners did that…and here on Saturday, they all do. Three of the last four winners all carried 11st 6lb.

You need to be front three on the tissue and with three of the last four winners all making seasonal debut, and the trends point t one of CYRNAME or CLONDAW CASTLE.

I simply cannot back CYRNAME, and despite being lbs better at the weights I’d have to go CLONDAW CASTLE 20/80

If CYRNAME turns up, he wins but that horse has a giant squiggle next to his name in my house.

RON – CLONDAW CASTLE 20/80

SEAN – CYRNAME

DOWN ROYAL 2-50

Everyone knows I love GALVIN but if he can beat MINELLA INDO off level weights, when essentially, he’s giving the Gold Cup winner 16lb, I’ll be stunned.

MINELLA INDO has won on debut in three of the four years he’s been racing under rules and if we take official ratings literally, FRODON should also beat GALVIN.

It’s a race I’ll watch rather than have a bet on but if GALVIN wins this, then I’m wrong about his targets later this season because I think he has Grand National written all over him.

RON – MINELLA INDO

SEAN – MINELLA INDO

DOWN ROYAL 3-25

Not a lot to say about this race really. If ENVOI ALLEN doesn’t pick these up and carry them, his season is over before it really begins. He’s officially 13lb better than the second favourite and it should be a quickfire De Bromhead/Blackmore double.

RON – ENVOI ALLEN

SEAN – ENVOI ALLEN

OMMS

  • EAST ASIA – 7/1 > 4/1 – WON 4/1
  • ANOTHER BATT – 9/1 > 7/1 – WON 9/2JF
  • HOT CHESTNUT – 25/1 > 10/1 – WON (DH) 12/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – DOUBLE – BAY BRIDGE / ZANOUSKI

SEAN – DESERT DREAMER

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Stopped in their prime by internet issues but lots to work with this weekend!
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