Thursday , December 2 2021

Bryony, gambles landed (how?), Sakhir?, and selections for Chepstow, Haydock and Ascot- 18/11/21

Plenty discussed this weekend including, was Bryony given rough justice, what goes on when a trainer is banned….but isn’t….farewell to Simon Claisse and races at Sakhir, Chepstow, Ascot and Haydock disected

For those hard of hearing and wishing to know what Sean and Ron selected this is Ron’s text, with Sean’s selections for each race discussed:

SAKHIR 1-00PM

Only two years old this race and gets Group 3 status for the first time this year.

They have £500k up for grabs and it’s a seriously International affair, with the Brits having six of the 14 runners racing for them and if we can claim Saaed Bin Suroor as one of our own now, it’s half the field.

The Boys in Blue are responsible for four of the first five on the tissue that I’ve seen and Charlie Appleby has two of the first three on that tissue running for him….and it’s his ZAKOUSKI trading the clear favourite @ 9/4 as I speak.

That speaks volumes for his improvement this year as LORD GLITTERS beat him easily in Dubai in January and yet the O’Meara horse is around 25/1 tomorrow.

Are you sensing an impending change of stable jockey at O’Meara’s?

Jason Watson is getting a lot of rides there since leaving Roger Charlton’s place and with Tudhope riding for Clipper Logistics, I just get a feeling we’ll hear some news in the very near future.

What’s going to win it?

Trends tell me nothing but I’ve liked ZAKOUSKI for a while now, he did me a favour in October and I’d think he’ll take a bit of beating. Only one run since February, he’s going there fresh and I think he’ll win.

RON – ZAKOUSKI

SEAN – ZAKOUSKI

CHEPSTOW 1-45

Seven winners have been aged five and we’ve also seen horses of that age grouping winning four of the last five running’s of the race so let’s go with horses of that age, trading front three on the tissue….I say that because eight of the last 10 winners did so and, we’ve seen six winning favourites….although I should point out we’ve has winners at 16/1 and 14/1 in two of the last three renewals.

I’ve narrowed it down pretty quickly To CHANCEUX and WAR CALL. The only two five year olds in the front three on the tissue they’ll trade very short I imagine, and as well as the Skelton horses are going right now, I’m with CHANCEUX, trained by Alistair Ralph.

He was never ridden to win last time as he’d have been given a hard race against a decent winner for no good reason.

WAR CALL’s fourth first time after a wind op was a good run as the winner won at Cheltenham last weekend. I’ll not be betting here myself because these races do not float my boat but for Podcast purposes, I’ll go CHANCEUX

RON – CHANCEUX

SEAN – WHYNOTNOWKEN E.W.

SATURDAY

HAYDOCK 12-10

I’m wondering what was wrong with SONIGINO last weekend as he has been supported the night before the race but was pulled out with a vets certificate?

I was going to start by saying we want a four or five-year-old here but that’d make me look more stupid than smart, as the six currently going to post are aged four, or five!

With no tissue to work with I’m left looking at projected odds and they have MIGHT I trading 6/5 for Harry Fry and the horse he beat very easily on October 21st, THUNDER ROCK, has since bolted up himself at Wetherby last Saturday and the form looks great.

Arriving here for this has not been a negative in the last decade as five winners of those last 10 winners of this have done so but that only rules out KNICKERBOCKERGLORY but with six of those 10 winners going off favourite, right now I’m in the Fry camp and will run with MIGHT I

RON – MIGHT I

SEAN – MIGHT I

HAYDOCK 1-50

Just four going to post and it’s like a plague on NH racing right now. The better the race, the fewer turn out for it.

Only five or six year olds win this so right away we are down to a pair:

  • BRAVEMANSGAME
  • PAY THE PIPER

Only one winner of this, in the last 10 years, has gone off bigger than 7/2 and so without much of a fuss it’s BRAVEMANSGAME doing the winning on Saturday.

RON – BRAVEMANSGAME

SEAN – BRAVEMANSGAME

HAYDOCK 3-00

The better ground has enticed a decent sized field for this and it’s great to see A PLUS TARD being sent over from Ireland to give it a crack.

No horse in here though, has ideal conditions. For instance, BRISTOL DE MAI is 0-7 on good to soft, and whilst ROYAL PAGAILLE is 2-2 at the track, he surely needs everything to require flippers and snorkel….this ground will not play to his strengths

For me it’s a race to watch only but for those looking to have a little fun bet, I’d go looking for a horse aged seven or younger. Five of the last 10 winners were.

The only two runners in here that fit are A PLUS TARD and ROYAL PAGAILLE and with just two winners in the last nine years going off bigger than 100/30, I have to suggest the Irish raider wins it. His second in the Gold Cup last season is great form and he should win, if fully fit.

RON – A PLUS TARD

SEAN – A PLUS TARD

ASCOT 2-05

Only six in here but any of them could win this.

The runes are telling me the following:

  • A seven or eight year old will win it so, that’s one of DASHEL DRASHER, DEFI DU SEUIL or PISTOL WHIPPED.
  • The winner will be front three on the tissue as all bar one of the last 10 winners were so that’s PISTOL WHIPPED dropped
  • The winner will be trained by one of Paul Nicholls or Philip Hobbs because they have won seven of the last 10 between them and so, that means our winner must be DEFI DU SEUIL

He’s an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum. One of those horses, much like CYRNAME, that you know has tons of ability….could be champions….but they very rarely show it on a racecourse.

I have to go with my trends and post up DEFI DU SEUIL but no way am I confident.

RON – DEFI DU SEUIL

SEAN – DEFI DU SEUIL

ASCOT 2-40

I have put BUZZ in one of our 10 to Follow lines and obviously hope he scoots in but we’ll see what the runes say.

A shame only five go to post but I’ve long given up being surprised this will happen. Six of the last eight winners were aged five, or six and every winner to date has been front three on the tissue, with no winner of any in the last decade going off bigger than 3/1 so if the runes are speaking true, the only winner can be BUZZ.

I’d love to take longer trying to sort these races out but working as I do with trends, and those quickly eliminating the majority on tissue price alone, I’m left doing what I’m doing now, and waffling!

RON  – BUZZ

SEAN – GOSHEN

PICK OF THE OMMS

3 – OUR IDIC BOY – 15/2 > 10/3 – WON 5/2

2 – ROLLERRULER – 12/1 > 7/1 – WON 5/1F

1 – ASK BLOSSOMFORT – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 17/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – A PLUS TARD

SEAN – DEFI DU SEUIL

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Bryony, gambles landed (how?), Sakhir?, and selections for Chepstow, Haydock and Ascot- 18/11/21
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