Wednesday , January 12 2022

40/1 winner last week, Ron’s gone for a weekend treble this time and Sean hopes to fulfil the ambition of a lifetime!

Can they follow that? A 40/1 Podcast winner from overseas last weekend but this week Sean and Ron discuss racing much closer to home.

For those hard of hearing and unable to tune in these are the words from Ron’s side of the conversation, with selections from both himself, and Sean Trivass

PODCAST 26/11/21

SATURDAY

NEWBURY 12-10

I’D NOT WANT TO BE WORKING WITH ANYTHING OLDER THAN A SIX YEAR OLD AS HORSES SIX OR YOUNGER HAVE WON ALL NINE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE.

AS EVERYTHING CARRIES 11ST OR MORE IT’S THE MARKETS WE GO TO FOR THE BEST CLUE AND THAT BEING NO HORSE OUTSIDE THE FRONT THREE ON THE TISSUE TO DATE, HAS WON THIS.

THE EARLY TISSUE THEREFORE SUGGESTS ONE OF

  • NINA THE TERRIER
  • ELLE EST BELLE
  • AHORSEWITHNONAME

….WINS IT.

ALAN KING TRAINS THE CURRENT FAVOURITE, NINA THE TERRIER, WHO ARRIVES UNBEATEN THIS SEASON, BUT HE HAS TRIED SEVEN TIMES TO WIN THIS AND ONLY PLACED WITH THREE.

FOUR OF THR LAST FIVE WINNERS ARRIVED HAVING WON, OR FINISHED SECOND LAST TIME OUT AND THAT STAT WOULD RULE OUR ELLE EST BELLE, WHO CAME HOME THIRD LAST TIME WE SAW HER.

FAVOURITES HAVE A GREAT RECORD IN THIS AND I’M THINKING ALAN KING WILL BREAK HIS DUCK TOMORROW….I’M WITH NINA THE TERRIER.

RON – NINA THE TERRIER

SEAN – NINA THE TERRIER

NEWBURY 12-40

ONLY FOUR GOING TO POST BUT IT LOOKS A DOOZIE!

HENRY DE BROMHEAD SENDS MR INCREDIBLE OVER FROM IRELAND AND HE LOOKED VERY GOOD ON SEASONAL DEBUT OVER THERE.

TRENDS TELL ME TO LOOK FOR A HORSE AGED FIVE OR SIX. THEY HAVE TAKEN EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 RUNNING’S.

AGAIN, WEIGHT MEANS NOTHING AS THEY ALL CARRY THE SAME BURDEN AND WHILST MARKET STATS INDICATE YOU NEED TO BE FRONT THREE ON THE TISSUE, ASHTOWN LAD TRADES 11/2 CURRENTLY, FOURTH FAVOURITE OF THE FOUR….BUT THIRD FAVOURITE IS 5/1.

IT IS THAT HORSE, FLASH COLLONGES, THAT INTERESTS ME MOST AS HE IS TRAINED BY PAUL NICHOLLS, WHO HAS WON THIS RACE THREE TIMES FROM EIGHT ENRTIRES, WINNING IT IN 2020, 2019 ANS 2013.

GREAT THINGS ARE EXPECTED FROM AHOY SENOR THIS YEAR. HE BEAT BRAVEMANSGAME AT AINTREE WHEN 66/1 AND THAT IS CRACKING GOOD FORM, IF IT WASN’T AN END OF SEASON RESULT.

I THINK ONE OF MR INCREDIBLE OR FLASH COLLONGES TAKES THIS AND WITH NICHOLLS HAVING WON THE LAST TWO RUNNING’S, ONCE WITH A SEASONAL DEBUTANTE, I’LL HAVE A LITTLE PUNT FLASH COLLONGES.

RON – FLASH COLLONGES

SEAN – AHOY SENOR

NEWBURY 2-25

ANOTHER FOUR RUNNER RACE BUT THE MARKET SUGGESTS THERE IS VERY LITTLE BETWEEN ALL FOUR. ONEMOREFORTHEROAD IS CURRENTLY THE 4/1 “OUTSIDER”!

AGE GROUPINGS ARE TELLING ME NOTHING. HERE WE HAVE 2 X 5-Y-O’S TAKING ON 2 X 6-Y-O’S AND THE LAST FOUR RUNNINGS HAVE BEEN WON BY TWO FROM EACH OF THOSE AGE GROUPS.

THE LAST SIX WINNERS ALL CARRIED 11ST OR MORE AND THAT RULES OUT TWO, CAPTAIN MORGS AND ONEMOREFORTHEROAD.

OF THE PAIR LEFT, SOARING GLORY / GOWEL ROAD, THEY ARE BOTH COURSE AND DISTANCE WINNERS, AND IT’S HERE I HAVE TO GO ALL PEDANTIC.

WHEN A WINNER HAS CARRIED 11ST OR MORE TO VICTORY, IT HAS NOT CARRIED LESS THAN 11ST 3LB. TWO OF THE LAST FIVE WINNERS CARRIED 11ST 10LB AND THAT SUGGESTS TO ME I HAVE TO NOMINATE SOARING GLORY.

I SHOPULD ALSO POINT OUT THAT NICKY HENDERSON HAS TRAINED THE LAST TWO WINNERS AND FOUR OF THE LAST NINE SO IF YOU FANCY CAPTAIN MORGS DON’T LET ME PUT YOU OFF!

RON – SOARING GLORY

SEAN – SOARING GLORY

NEWCASTLE 12-55

THE LAST THREE WINNERS OF THIS WENT IN AT 50/1, 40/1 AND 10/1….AND THE LAST SIX WINNERS HAVE ALL BEEN FIVE YEAR OLDS.

EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS ALL CARRIED 11ST 3LB OR MORE AND WHILST WE HAVE SEEN SOME TOTALLY BONKERS RESULTS MOST RECENTLY, THE NORM IS TO GO LOOKING FOR OUR WINNER IN THE FRONT FOUR ON THE TISSUE….SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE WINNERS WERE, INCLUDING THAT 10/1 SHOT LAST YEAR.

THAT MEANS I’M LOOKING TO ONE OF

  • MR GLASS
  • CAPTAIN QUINT

RIGHT AGE, WEIGHT, MARKET POSITION.

ROSE DOBBIN TRAINS CAPTAIN QUINT AND IN THE LAST 10 YEARS SHE HAS SADDLED THREE FOR THIS, WON WITH ONE, PLACED WITH ANOTHER.

COMMON SENSE SAYS PICK MR GLASS. TRAINED BY PAUL NICHOLLS, DOTTED UP ON HURDLING DEBUT, AND IT’S A GOOD WALK FROM DITCHEAT TO NEWCASTLE.

I’M GOING 20/80 WITH THE DOBBIN RUNNER THOUGH AS THE SUGGESTED 15/2 VERSUS THE 11/10 GIVES ME A PLACE PLAY IF THE FAVOURITE BLOWS THEM AWAY.

RON – CAPTAIN QUINT – 20/80

SEAN – CAPTAIN QUINT – E.W

NEWCASTLE 2-05

LOVE THIS RACE.

AGAIN THOUGH, WE’VE SEEN SOME SERIOUSLY FUNKY RESULTS IN RECENT YEARS, LAST YEAR A 66/1 SHOT BLEW THEM AWAY.

NORMALLY I’M LOOKING FOR A HORSE AGED EIGHT, OR OLDER. THEY HAVE WON EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 RUNNINGS….THE LAST TWO WINNERS HAVE BEEN 10-Y-O’S PRICED 20/1 AND 66/1

YOU NEED TO BE CARRYING 10ST 10LB OR MORE (THE LAST 10 HAVE DONE SO), AND PRIOR TO US GETTING SILLY PRICED WINNERS, THE MOST LIKELY SPOT ON THE TISSUE FOR A PLAY WAS FRONT FOUR. SIX OF THE PREVIOUS SEVEN WINNERS WERE.

I SHOULD JUST SAY, THE FAVOURITE, WHATEVER IT IS COME OFF TIME, IS NAILED ON TOR PLACEPOT PLAYERS….SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE TO FINISH CAME HOME FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD.

I’M GOING TO SAY LOOK FOR A HORSE FRONT FOUR ON THE TISSUE, CARRYING BETWEEN 10ST 10LB AND 11ST 12LB, AGED 8-11

TWO TO WORK WITH

  • THE FERRY MAN
  • AYE RIGHT

NOW, I’M GOING TO SELECT AYE RIGHT BECAUSE ONLY TWO OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS ARRIVED FOR THIS HAVING WON OR PLACED LAST TIME OUT AND THE HARRIET GRAHAM TRAINED RUNNER CAME HOME FIFTH ON SEASONAL DEBUT, AND IS A PREVIOUS CD WINNER.

YOU HAVE TO GO 20/80 BECAUSE ANY HORSE THAT HAS MANAGED JUST ONE WIN FROM 10 STARTS OVER FENCES IS CLEARLY DIFFICULT TO WIN WITH. HE HAS PLACE IN ANOTHER FIVE AND I’M EXPECTING TO AT LEAST GET A RETURN OFF MY “80”

RON – AYE RIGHT – 20/80

SEAN – DINGO DOLLAR – E.W

NEWCASTLE 3-15

I’M QUITE SURE NICKY HENDERSON WOULD HAVE TRAINED THE LAST FOUR WINNERS OF THIS, HAD BUVEUR D’AIR NOT FINISHED WITH A CHUNK OF HURDLE STICKING OUT OF HIS HOOF WHEN BEATEN A SHORT HEAD BY CORNERSTONE LAD IN 2019.

NORMAL SERVICE WAS RESUMED LAST YEAR WHEN EPATANTE HOSED UP, BEATING ONE OF TOMORROW’S RIVALS SCEAU ROYAL BY MORE THAN FOUR LENGTHS.

THE WINNER OF THIS HAS BEEN FRONT TWO ON THE TISSUE IN SEVEN OF THE LAST 10 RUNNINGS AND AGAIN, THE FAVOURITE WOULD HAVE WON THREE OF THE LAST FOUR BUT FOR THAT INCIDENT MENTIONED.

I MAKE IT BETWEEN EPATANTE AND MONMIRAL, IF TRENDS SPEAK TRUE IN 2021.

HOWEVER, ONLY ONE 4-Y-O HAS WON THIS IN THE LAST DECADE AND MONMIRAL IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE VERY GOOD TO BEAT THE HENDERSON HORSE, ESPECIALLY GIVING A HORSE RATED 1LB SUPERIOR, 7LB!

I’M WITH EPATANTE

RON – EPATANTE

SEAN – EPATANTE

SUNDAY

FAIRYHOUSE 1-05

THE BEST HORSES IN IRELAND ARE HOUSED IN THE BEST YARDS AND IT’S NO SURPRISE THAT EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS HAVE COME FROM ONE OF TWO TRAINERS, WILLIE MULLINS AND GORDON ELLIOTT.

THAY HAVE ALSO BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST SEVEN BETWEEN THEM…4-3 TO MULLINS.

THEY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR FIVE OF THE EIGHT RUNNERS SET TO GO TO POST AND I RECKON ALL WE NEED TO DO BETWEEN US, IS WORK OUT WHICH ONE WINS.

THE FAVOURITE HAS WON THE LAST FOUR RUNNINGS, AND FIVE OF THE LAST SIX.

FUNNY THING IS, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVOURITE IS TRAINED BY NEITHER OF THEM, MY MATE MOZZIE, FROM THE GAVIN CROMWELL YARD TOP DOG ON THE TISSUE I’M LOOKING AT.

SECOND FAVOURITE (AND EASY TO BACK IF WHAT I’M LOOKING AT IS RIGHT), IS MIGHTY POTTER FROM THE ELLIOTT YARD AND WITH ALL THREE MULLINS RUNNERS CURRENTLY 11/1 OR BIGGER, I’M THINKING, IF TRAINER TRENDS ARE RIGHT, ONE OF

  • MIGHTY POTTER
  • THREE STRIPE LIFE

I WAS VERY IMPRESSED BY THE SECOND NAMED OF THOSE ELLIOTT HORSES ON SEASONAL DEBUT….SO MUCH SO, I BANGED IT IN A TEN TO FOLLOW LINE.

THAT WIN CAME OVER COURSE AND DISTANCE AND IF I CAN GET 4/1, I’LL GO 20/80

RON – THREE STRIPE LIFE – 20/80

SEAN – STATUAIRE – E.W

FAIRYHOUSE 1-35

ANOTHER RACE DOMINATED BY THE MULLINS AND ELLIOTT YARDS, SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE WINNERS THEY HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR.

TO SUCCEED ON SUNDAY THOUGH, THEY WILL BOTH HAVE TO BUCK THE TISSUE TRENDS, WHICH STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE TRADING BIGGER THAN 7/2.

NINE OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS WERE 7/2 OR SHORTER AND FOUR OF THE LAST SIX FAVOURITES HAVE OBLIGED.

YOU WANT TO BE WITH A FIVE OF SIX YEAR OLD, TOO….SEVEN OF THE LAST EIGHT WINNERS WERE.

THE WINNER THEN IS ONE OF:

  • LIFETIME AMBITION
  • GABYNAKO

THE LAST NAMED OPENED THE 7/4 FAVOURITE BUT IS NOW 3/1, WHILST THE HARRINGTON TRAINED LIFETIME AMBITION IS THE CURRENT 5/2 JOLLY.

I LIKE THIS FAVOURITE, WHO JUMPED THEM SILLY ON SEASONAL DEBUT BEATING THE CURRENT SECOND FAVOURITE ON SUNDAY, BEACON EDGE, NEARLY THREE LENGTHS. I RECKON THEY’LL PROBABLY FINISH IN THE SAME ORDER AGAIN AND I’M WITH LIFETIME AMBITION.

RON – LIFETIME AMBITION

SEAN – LIFETIME AMBITION

FAIRYHOUSE 2-40

I’D LOVE TO SIT HERE AND TELL YOU I CAN GET HONEYSUCKLE BEATEN….BUT I CANNOT.

SHE HAS WON THIS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, IS TOUGH AS OLD BOOTS, THEREIGNING CHAMPION HURDLER, AND IS AROUND 4/7 TO DEFEND HER CROWN HERE.

SALDIER OPENED 5/1 SECOND FAVOURITE….YOU CAN NOW HAVE 7/1…IT’S THEN 10/1 BAR THAT PAIR.

IF I WERE LOOKING FOR A PLACE PLAY THEN RONALD PUMP, THE RUNNER UP IN THIS RACE LAST YEAR AND A PREVIOUS CD WINNER, IS BIG @ 14/1 BUT I’M ALL HONEYSUCKLE.

RON – HONEYSUCKLE

SEAN – HONEYSUCKLE

CARLISLE 1-45

ANOTHER WHERE ONLY FOUR ARE CURRENTLY GOING TO POST BUT INTRIGUING THAT MULLINS SENDS OVER ELIMAY AND HAS BOOKED BRIAN HUGHES TO RIDE HER.

HE SENT BENIE DE DIEUX OVER TO WIN THIS IN 2017 AND I EXPECT ELIMAY TO GO OFF FAVOURITE AND WIN.

SHE RACES OFF LEVEL WEIGHTS WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE SECOND FAVOURITE ANNIE MC AND YET IS OFFICIALLY 7LB THE BETTER HORSE.

SHE IS ANOTHER IN ONE OF OUR 10 TO FOLLOW LINES AND I XPECT POINTS ON THE BOARD.

RON – ELIMAY

SEAN – ELIMAY

OMMS

  • RUNASIMI RIVER – 13/2 > 5/1 – WON 12/1
  • TOMMY’S OSCAR – 5/1 > 3/1 – WON 10/3
  • SHERBORNE – 16/1 > 7/1 – WON 7/2

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON

E.W TREBLE

  • AYE RIGHT (NEWCASTLE 2-05)
  • LIFETIME AMBITION (FAIRYHOUSE 1-05)
  • THREE STRIPE LIFE (FAIRYHOUSE 1-35)

SEAN

LIFETIME AMBITION

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40/1 winner last week, Ron's gone for a weekend treble this time and Sean hopes to fulfil the ambition of a lifetime!
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