Thursday , January 13 2022

12/1 winner of the Royal Bond and Sean’s on a Roll….literally!

The lads have been on brilliant form this week, Sean nailng the 12/1 winner of the Royal Bond last weekend, Ron advising a place only play RONALD PUMP, who again followed Honeysuckle home @ 22/1 and then notching an amazing 1966/1 Trifecta with a top three 1-2-3 in a Rated race on Saturday!

Ron’s Podcast text this week reads:

PODCAST 02/12/21

FRIDAY

EXETER 2-05

The last 10 running’s have been dominated by horses aged five, six and seven. The six going to post tomorrow are five, six and seven.

With the exception of FLOWING CADENZA, they all carry 11st 2lb and as only one winner in the last decade has carried less than 11st, we can drop the 100/1 outsider.

We’ve had nine previous running’s of this race and the winner has only ever once been outside the front two on the tissue and right now it’s 6/4 joint favourite ADRIMEL and BOOTHILL.

It’s then 7/1 bar that pair.

BOOTHILL has had a race already this season and the word from Harry Fry’s yard is they think he could be top class over fences. I cannot see a winner of this previously, doing so on seasonal debut and so I’m with BOOTHILL as ADRIMEL has been missing for 237 days.

RON – BOOTHILL

SEAN – ADRIMEL

SANDOWN 2-25

Only five heading to post but a little cracker, as all five arrive having won last time out.

Horses aged four, five and six have dominated this but as the five runner comprise of 3 x 5-y-o’s and a brace of 6-y-o’s, that’s no help.

The market though does give off fumes and even though the winners of this in 2018 and 2019 were priced 12/1 and 10/1 respectively, seven of the last 10 winners were sited from two on the tissue.

Right now you are looking to one of:

  • BRAVE KINGDOM
  • FAIR FRONTIERES

….if that trend holds up.

The latter is trained by Kim Bailey and his horses have not been firing during the first four weeks of the core season. He has only run three in the last two weeks and by contrast Paul Nicholls, who trains BRAVE KINGDOM, is bang on blob with 12 of his last 43 runners winning, and 11 others finishing second or third.

I’ll go with BRAVE KINGDOM but it’s not a race I’d like to have a bet in.

RON – BRAVE KINGDOM

SEAN – VIVA LAVILLA

SATURDAY

AINTREE 12-20

I’m having Déjà vu!

I’m just going to revisit what I said last week as this race should have taken place at Carlisle, which we lost.

“ANOTHER WHERE ONLY FOUR ARE CURRENTLY GOING TO POST BUT INTRIGUING THAT MULLINS SENDS OVER ELIMAY AND HAS BOOKED BRIAN HUGHES TO RIDE HER.

Brian Hughes is now elsewhere and Aiden Coleman takes over the steering.

HE SENT BENIE DE DIEUX OVER TO WIN THIS IN 2017 AND I EXPECT ELIMAY TO GO OFF FAVOURITE AND WIN.

SHE RACES OFF LEVEL WEIGHTS WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE SECOND FAVOURITE ANNIE MC AND YET IS OFFICIALLY 7LB THE BETTER HORSE.

SHE IS ANOTHER IN ONE OF OUR 10 TO FOLLOW LINES AND I EXPECT POINTS ON THE BOARD.

RON – ELIMAY

SEAN – ELIMAY

AINTREE 1-30

ADDOSH carries a penalty because she has won a Class 2 weight for age and the last horse to win this doing likewise was GITANE DU BERLAIS in 2013.

That winner was trained by Willie Mullins and went off 5/4 favourite and on Saturday I’m thinking we’ll see another Irish trained favourite in WHITE PEPPER, although that has gone from 7/4 > 5/2.

All three years of age, all the horses I’m interested in carrying 10st 12lb and so all I have to apply here from a trends angle, is market position.

Last season we had a 14/1 boil over and in 2017 the Gavin Cromwell trained FAMOUS MILLY won @ 10/1 but outside that pair, nothing has won this priced bigger than 4/1

The only qualifier, currently, is WHITE PEPPER, also trained by Gavin Cromwell.

So many of these are wholly unexposed and so I’ll just post up WHITE PEPPER as my selection but again, not a race I’d play with cash.

RON – WHITE PEPPER

SEAN – ADDOSH E.W.

AINTREE 2-05

I’m only interested in older horses here as the last five winners have been aged 10, 9, 9, 8, 9

Only one of the last 10 winners have carried more than 11st 6lb but that doesn’t help because all fall into the correct weight category.

Market position of our last 10 winners is interesting though. Last year the fourth best on the tissue won @ 16/1 but prior to that, you needed to be front three on the tissue and right now they are:

  • PROTEKTORAT
  • IMPERIAL AURA
  • NATIVE RIVER

No 11 year old has won this previously so we drop NATIVE RIVER. He has been a great horse for connections but they are old legs now.

IMPERIAL AURA is running for that yard I mentioned earlier, that has not started the season well….Kim Bailey….and he’s also finding it hard to complete a race, now having failed three times in succession to do so.

That leaves me with PROTEKTORAT, who runs for another yard in belting form, a previous course winner, who ran an absolute screamer in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

He has to be my pick here.

RON – PROTEKTORAT

SEAN – TIGER ROLL E.W.

NAVAN 12-33

Five runners, no tissue but with six of the last eight winners being aged five, and with eight of the last 10 winners of this trained by either Mullins or Elliott, I’ve got it down to one of GINTO or MR FRED ROGERS….both 5-y-o’s, trained by Elliott….Mullins has nowt entered.

Right now I’m leaning towards GINTO, purely and simply because he’s a CD winner.

He’s also by the sire of our very own WALK ON HIGH, who most likely runs at Warwick next Thursday, and I’m becoming a huge fan of anything by WALK IN THE PARK, especially after the performance of JONBON.

Purely guesswork here as limited trends and information but I’ll get with GINTO.

RON – GINTO

SEAN – GINTO

NAVAN 1-43

Now we really do move into the realms of the magic pin. A Novice Chase with only six previous runs to its name, a strong bias towards six year olds (they have won five of the six running’s), but that has been won four times by the favourite, including the last three running’s, three of which have been odds on and a second favourite that won at Evens.

Gordon Elliott has won three of the last four of these and he saddles a brace of 4-y-o’s, the best of which is surely RIVIERE D’ETEL.

As I say, no trends to work with really, no tissue (If I had one I could nail this now!), and so I’ll just bung up an Elliott runner because he farms it. Hopefully it goes off favourite because whatever does, probably wins it.

RON – RIVIERE D’ETEL

SEAN – DREAL DEAL E.W.

SANDOWN 1-50

Five year olds have won seven of the last 10 of these and four of the last five but are not represented on Saturday so I’m looking next at four and five year olds, as nothing older than six had taken this prize home….which gets the current forecast second favourite EDWARDSTONE beaten.

Last year we had the youngest horse in a decade winning, when ALLMANKIND took it as a 4-y-o….he was also the first runner in the last 10 years to carry less than 11st.

This race is prone to throwing up a big priced winner and we had a 14/1 shot win in 2019, an 11/1 shot in 2017 and another 14/1 winner in 2015.

Tell you what I have found interesting, whilst trying to work this race out….a little four runner race at Newton Abbot, that was run on the 10th of October. It was won by WAR LORD, who runs here and has won since.

The second horse home that day, WITNESS PROTECTION, has come out and won since, the third placed horse, IL RIDOTO, came out last weekend and won @ 4/1….a Scribblings selection…..he too runs here. The fourth placed horses was ROCKSTAR RONNIE who has come out and won twice since. Now that’s a race proving serious kit!

I imagine everyone will be looking to THIRD TIME LUCKI to run these ragged and he might well do that as he’s a brilliant jumper. I thought he was crying enough last time out though.

I’m liking that little Newton Abbot race and even though IL RIDOTO has obviously improved a bundle for his first run in this country, he’s got to improve again to turn the form around with WAR LORD who is unbeaten in two over fences and at around 6/1 looks proper 20/80 material against the short priced favourite.

RON – WAR LORD – 20/80

SEAN – THIRD TIME LUCKI

SANDOWN 2-25

The Tingle Creek….named after a horse who would have taken this lot to the cleaners.

It is a shame SHISHKIN isn’t here, not only because it means another small field for a first prize of £85k but because he was such a promising chaser last season and I just want to see the best taking on the best.

For me it’s a two horse race, not least because the front two on the tissue have provided the winner of the race in eight of the last 10 running’s and if neither of CHACUN POUR SOI or NUBE NEGRA wins this, I’d lose money if I were betting….which I wont be.

The forecast tissue tells me that it will be CHACUN POUR SOI. He is 6/4 > 11/8 whilst the Skelton trained runner is 6/4 > 5/2.

CHACUN POUR SOI is officially 8lb the better horse of the two mentioned and until I see for myself that the wheels have come off that Mullins runner, I’m with CHACUN POUR SOI

RON – CHACUN POUR SOI

SEAN – CHACUN POUR SOI

OMMS 1-2-3

  • BLAKLION – 8/1 > 11/2 – WON 3/1
  • GEGE VILLE – 20/1 > 8/1 – WON 17/2
  • NOT SO SLEEPY – 20/1 > 8/1 – DEAD HEATED 18/1

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – WAR LORD 20/80 (Sandown 1-50)

SEAN – CHACUN POUR SOI

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12/1 winner of the Royal Bond and Sean's on a Roll....literally!
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