This weeks Podcast looks at the fallout from the Bryony Frost case, whether racing is for cheats only and the price of a pint and a hot dog on a racecourse.
Obviously, we’ve got loads of winners for you, too!
For those hard of hearing please find below my side of the races converstaion, with selections of both myself and Sean Trivass.
Best of luck!
Only five going to post and whilst I’ll not be betting here, I’m hoping JONBON is as impressive as he was on debut, lands the odds on for those that play and proves as good in 2023 over fences as I think he will be.
The “runes” say you need to be a four or five year old, carrying more than 11st and trading front two on the tissue….and arriving having won last time out (eight of the last 10 winners had done that).
I’m seeing 8/11 JONBON, then 5/1 KNAPPERS HILL….if anything else wins it, I’ll be stunned!…if JONBON doesn’t win, it wont be the end of the world as he’s a bona fide steeplechaser waiting to happen.
Cracking good race though and I’ve got to be with JONBON.
RON – JONBON
SEAN – I LIKE TO MOVE IT (E.W.)
Every winner in the last 10 years has been aged five, or six. Every winner in the same period of time has been front two on the tissue and seven of the last 10 winners arrived having won last time out. All 10 carried 11st or more.
Right now the market/weight/age stats tell me it’s between PIC D’ORHY and FAIVOIR….and with PIC D’ORHY having fallen last time out, and FAIVOIR winning, my selection has to be the Skelton runner.
He beat TORN AND FRAYED over course and distance last time out and the runner up ran a more than decent second to MY DROGO last weekend.
I’ll plump for FAIVOIR purely based on the runes.
RON – FAIVOIR
SEAN – PIC D’ORHY
No tissue at my end I’m afraid so all I can do is tell you what to look out for on Saturday.
I’ve only seven previous running’s of this to play around with but I’m seeing that you have to be with a five- or six-year-old, as only one of the seven previous winners wasn’t from those age groupings.
11st 3lb and above because the last six winners all carried between 11st 3lb and 11st 5lb.
Only one winning favourite to date but, only one winner so far going off bigger than 7/1….I’d love an accurate tissue at this moment but, there we are.
Right now I have two horses with no jockeys up yet so I’m not even in possession of the field size and making a definitive selection is impossible given how I work.
Once I have all those details in my locker I’ll post up my selection on the website.
RON – FRONTAL ASSAULT 20/80
SEAN – FRONTAL ASSAULT E.W.
I’m disappointed with this turnout. Seven going to post but all of them look ordinary to me.
Only nine previous running’s and seven of those went to 5-y-o’s.
All carted 11st or more, and all bar a pair were front two on the tissue. Again, I have no tissue but my advice again is to wait for a proper market to go up, look for a five year old, in the front two, and get on.
The most obvious selection is NINA THE TERRIER but she looked cooked when coming down at the last hurdle at Newbury and as we saw last weekend, when SCEAU ROYAL ran as flat as a pancake, Alan King could be sending some to the well to often this early in the season….this will be her fourth run….same as SCEAU ROYAL.
She will most likely fit the trends but I couldn’t back her.
RON – NO BET
SEAN – NINA THE TERRIER
After last weekends debacle, I’m not sure I ever want to say the words “all weather” again!
We both reasoned why COLTRANE had a great chance, advised an e.w. play at the 6/1, the horse goes off 6/4 favourite and finishes plum last. Trainers rep couldn’t give the stewards any idea as to why he ran like a drain, either!
I’m seeing I need to be working with a four or five year old, they’ve won seven of the last 10 between them.
All bar SEA OF CHARM fit the weight range stats and with six of the last eight winners sitting in the first pair on the tissue that’s again my way in from a market angle….when I have a market.
It’s again another race I’ll need an accurate tissue for, before putting hard earned down so please check the website for an update.
RON – FELIX
SEAN – GARDEN PARADISE
Between 2011 and 2016, this was dominated by the five year olds but from 2017 onwards, you have three six year olds and a seven year old winning this.
Five year olds have called it a day here so I’m going to suggest a six or seven year old that is carrying 11st or more, and trading front two on the tissue, wins this. In the last 10 years eight winners were first or second favourite and, five went off the jolly.
The only qualifier based on an early tissue I have is PENCILFULLOFLEAD who travels over from Ireland and runs first time in a tongue tie.
He is running off level weights with the second favourite and yet, on official figures, he is 6lb his superior.
The third favourite, BLACK OP, gets 7lb off the Irish horse but is 11lb inferior on official figures and also 10 years of age, and I cannot find a winner of this older than seven.
Has to be PENCILFULLOFLEAD for me.
RON – PENCIFULLOFLEAD
SEAN – PENCILFULLOFLEAD
A wide spread of winning age groups here but top of the shop with five are eight year olds.
Everything carries 11st 7lb so no advantages there but market position of all 10 winners says you do not want to be outside the front three. Currently they are:
- THYME HILL
- RONALD PUMP
If Paisley Park could find his best form again then 10/1 is enormous. They’ve put a first time tongue tie on for Saturday and if that did something he’s an e.w. play but I want an 8-y-o, trading front three on the tissue and that’s RONALD PUMP.
He did me a big favour when getting beaten last time out because I had a nice place punt @ 22/1 and he ran second to HONEYSUCKLE over a trip on the sharp side.
He finished second in a Stayers Hurdle not so long ago, had a few niggles last season but if back to his best he must hit the frame in this.
He’s my 20/80.
RON – RONALD PUMP 20/80
SEAN – BUZZ
A 13 runner Handicap with a tissue of sorts, a host of tends and I’m looking forward to this race more than any of the others discussed here today.
Last year when we did this, I had MISTER MALARKY come out the winner on trends and he only went and won @ 16/1!
I nailed the 33/1 winner of this in 2018, top rated, and it would be nice to do that again!
Six, seven and eight year olds onside is my first port of call. That 33/1 winner bucked all trends and became the only nine year old winner of this.
Seven of those 10 winners also carried more than 11st and, following a run of four winners in the front two on the tissue between 2011 and 2014, it’s been winners at 20/1, 17/2, 33/1, 16/1 and 16/1 in the last five years.
It might sound daft….and probably is….but I’m going to suggest I want to be with a horse aged seven, eight or nine, carrying between 11st and 11st 5lb, sitting fourth favourite or worse, but no bigger than 20/1 (that 33/1 winner really was an anomaly.
Three of the last five winners actually arrived having a letter next to its name, following it’s last run.
If I whack that lot into the blender, the horse coming out as a 20/80 is STORM CONTROL. A beaten favourite last time out, they’ve given it a wind-op, it already wears a tongue tie and cheekpieces so clearly needs help!
Purely for Podcast purposes, I’ll bang that up as a 20/80 but I’m also looking forward to seeing what my figures say in the morning.
RON – STORM CONTROL 20/80
SEAN – JERRYSBACK E.W.
- TREASURE DILLON – 10/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/1
- PRESENT VALUE – 16/1 > 7/1 – WON 3/1
- PITTSBURG – 16/1 > 9/1 – WON 10/3F
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – RONALD PUMP 20/80
SEAN – PENCILFULLOFLEAD