THE WORKS FOR MEMBERS – 25/04/24

by | Apr 24, 2024

Thanks for looking in. To make best use of the information please make sure you check back around 11-30am as by that time I will have highlighted and colour-coded the OMMS and Rated races, with Scribblings attached to each rated race.

TODAY’S TURF RATINGS

WHAT THE ICONS MEAN….

(X%) NEXT A HORSE’S RATING = TRAINERS RTF %AGE FIGURE (HORSES RUNNING TO FORM)
☠️ = IRISH HORSE RUNNING IN A HANDICAP
✳️ = WINNER ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED
3️⃣ = INDICATES A 3-Y-O IN AN ALL AGED HANDICAP
§ = INDICATES BEST DRAWN RUNNERS
W1, W2 = RUNNING 1ST TIME / 2ND TIME FOLLOWING A WIND-OP
T = TRAVELLED A 300 MILE OR MORE ROUND TRIP TO RACE
H = INDICATES FIRST TIME HEADGEAR
(BF) – INDICATES BEATEN FAVOURITE LAST TIME OUT
❓ = IMPOSSIBLE TO RATE ACCURATELY AS UNEXPOSED OVER HURDLES/FENCES

COLOUR CODING

ORANGE = MOVER (OMM)
PURPLE = STRONG OMM
RED = VERY STRONG OMM
(F) = FLUCTUATING
(D) = DRIFTER
(S) = SOLID ON THE TISSUE
GREY = NR

🏇 BEVERLEY 2-45

CLASS 5

HISTORY – 4 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – L-M-H

  • ✳️ § – MISS BRAZEN….+12 (27%) – 8/1 > 6/1 > 13/2
  • ✳️ – ELEGANT ERIN….+10 (33%) – 5/1 > 7/2 > 9/2
  • § – DARE TO HOPE….+9 (33%) – 7/1 > 5/1
  • ✳️ § – COUNT D’ORSAY….+9 (19%) – 16/1 > 11/1
  • SOUL SEEKER….+8 (60%) – 18/1 > 12/1
  • ✳️ – COPPER KNIGHT….+8 (19%) – 8/1 > 14/1
  • ✳️ – LAKOTA BLUE….-1 (43%) – 5/1 > 6/1
  • MATTICE….-9 (19%) – 6/1 > 12/1
  • § – RAMBUSO CREEK….-22 (32%) – 10/1 > 5/1 > 6/1
  • HONOUR YOUR DREAMS….-33 (43%) – 10/1 > 11/1
  • ZAMAN JEMIL….-40 (44%) – 16/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS COUNT D’ORSAY

SCRIBBLINGS

I’M HAPPY WITH MY FIGURES HERE, THE TOP TWO ONLY “LILAC” BECAUSE OF THE TRIO IN ORANGE BELOW THEM MOVING, BUT THEY TOO SAW SUPPORT IN THE FIRST INSTANCE, ELEGANT ERIN VERY MUCH THE INITIAL MOVER. 

WE HAVE HAD JUST FOUR RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE, THE LAST THREE WINNERS ALL BEING AGED FOUR….FAR TO EARLY TO MEAN MUCH BUT, IT IS A SIGN. AS IS THE FACT THREE OF THE FOUR WINNERS HAVE RETURNED SP’S OF 33/1, 18/1 AND 18/1….BUT AGAIN, A SIGN!

I’D BE HAPPY TRUSTING STAKE MANAGEMENT HERE BUT IF LAKOTA BLUE, RAMBUSO CREEK OR SOUL SEEKER WON, I’D NOT BE AT ALL STUNNED.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 BEVERLEY 4-30 

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 5 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – BELTANE….+9 (29%) – 3/1 > 11/4 > 3/1
  • ✳️ – TEMPER TRAP….-7 (19%) – 11/1 > 28/1
  • ✳️ – ARTHUR’S REALM….-11 (32%) – 9/4 > 15/8
  • WESTERNESSE….-11 (60%) – 9/4 > 5/2 > 9/4
  • SHALADAR….-40 (32%) – 4/1 > 6/1
  • KING SHARJA….-40 (29%) – 16/1 > 25/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

CLEARLY, ONE OF RATED HORSES 1, 3, 4 WILL BE WINNING THIS RACE. THEY PRODUCE A NEAR 12% PROFIT OFF A DUTCH.

I AM SURPRISED BELTANE TRADES THE LONGEST PRICE OF THE THREE, AS HE HAS OBTAINED A DECENT +RATING, IS 2-3 ON SOFT GROUND, 2-7 TRIP AND 1-4 TRACK….THE ONLY COURSE WINNER IN THE FIELD. THAT WIN WAS OVER CD, ON SOFT….AND HE RACES OFF 4LB LOWER TODAY.

HE HAS SPENT THE WINTER ON ALL WEATHER TRACKS WHICH CLEARLY HAVEN’T SUITED. YET TO WIN A CLASS 4 BUT HE HAS BEEN COMPETITIVE IN THEM. 

TEMPER TRAP IS 5-9 GROUND, 5-25 TRIP BUT 0-6 TRACK AND THAT MOST DEFINITELY ACCOUNTS FOR THAT DRIFT.

INTERESTING LITTLE RACE THIS.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

 

🏇 BEVERLEY 5-05

CLASS 5

HISTORY – 10 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • MY HARRISON GEORGE….-14 (33%) – 7/4 > 11/4 > 5/2
  • WHERE’S JEFF….-14 (27%) – 7/2 > 8/1
  • ✳️ – LENNY’S SPIRIT….-16 (32%) – 7/2 > 2/1 > 9/4
  • MOUSH….-34 (44%) – 12/1 > 16/1
  • 🔥 H – LODDON….-34 (33%) – 7/1 > 5/1 > 7/2
  • BURGLAR’S DREAM….-39 (19%) – 7/1 > 10/1
  • SONNING….-39 (0%) – 16/1 > 20/1 > 14/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS LODDON

SCRIBBLINGS

THIS WILL, IF THE MARKET IS CORRECT, SUGGEST DROPPING CLASS 5 RACES FOR RATINGS PURPOSES IS POSSIBLY A GOOD WAY TO GO….UNLESS (AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY), THAT’S ALL WE HAVE.

ONLY ONE HAS WINNING FORM ON SOFT AND THEY WERE ON HIM LIKE A FLASH BUT OVERNIGHT, AND THIS MORNING, THE ONLY HORSE THEY WANT IS LODDON….0-2 GROUND, 0-4 TRIP, 0-1 TRACK….HORRIBLE, ISN’T IT!

WHERE’S JEFF IS THE ONLY COURSE WINNER HERE….BUT ALREADY 0-6 GROUND AND ONLY 1-13 TRIP.

IT’S A RACE THAT MAKES YOU FEEL LIKE YOU ARE COMPLETING A LOTTERY TICKET, IF YOU PUT A NAME ON A BETTING SLIP.

A DUTCH RATED HORSES 1, 3, 5 RETURNS 40% PROFIT AND THAT WOULD BE MY WAY IN HERE.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

OMMS (TURF/ALL WEATHER)

COLOUR CODING

ORANGE = NEW MOVER (MMM)
🔥 PURPLE = STRONG OMM
🔥 🔥 RED = VERY STRONG OMM
PLUM = FLUCTUATING
GREY = NR
RTF%AGE IN BOLD, IN BRACKETS
(EMM) = EARLY MARKET MOVER (BEFORE 9-00PM DAY BEFORE RACING)
(OMM) = OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
(MMM) = MORNING MARKET MOVER
(AMM) = AFTERNOON MARKET MOVER

ICONS:

(OI) = IN OF INTEREST SECTION
(BF) = IN BEATEN FAVOURITES SECTION
(W, W2) = IN WIND OPS SECTIONS
(H) = RUNS IN FIRST TIME HEADGEAR

* HORSES NO LONGER BOLD INDICATE NON-RUNNERS HAVE CAUSED MARKET FLUCTUATIONS.

BEVERLEY

  • (MMM) 2-10 – KALLIPPOS – 2/1 > 7/4
  • (MMM) 2-10 – INDICATION EMBER – 6/1 > 5/1 (BF)
  • (EMM) 2-45 – ELEGANT ERIN – 5/1 > 7/2 > 4/1
  • (MMM) 2-45 – DARE TO HOPE – 7/1 > 11/2
  • (MMM) 2-45 – COUNT D’ORSAY – 16/1 > 12/1
  • (MMM) 2-45 – SOUL SEEKER – 18/1 > 12/1
  • (MMM) 3-20 – DAMBUSTER – 2/1 > 11/8
  • 🔥 (EMM) 3-55 – SEA THE DREAM – 10/3 > 9/4 > 5/2 > 13/8
  • (OMM) 3-55 – CLASSY BOY – 4/1 > 5/2 > 3/1
  • (MMM) 4-30 – ARTHUR’S REALM – 9/4 > 15/8
  • 🔥 (OMM) 5-05 – LODDON – 7/1 > 5/1 > 7/2 (H)
  • (MMM) 5-40 – LITTLE ROSE – 4/1 > 9/4

CHELMSFORD

  • 🔥 (EMM) 6-30 – QATAR WAVE – 16/1 > 7/1 > 6/1
  • (MMM) 6-30 – ZARIELA – 7/2 > 7/4 (BF)
  • (MMM) 7-00 – POETIC JACK – 14/1 > 13/2
  • (EMM) 8-00 – FICTIONAL – 3/1 > 5/4
  • (MMM) 8-30 – QUANTUM FORCE – 5/1 > 3/1
  • (MMM) 8-30 – TEN CLUB – 8/1 > 5/1 (H)
  • (EMM) 9-00 – BASS PLAYER – 20/1 > 12/1 (SOLID)
  • (MMM) 9-00 – BOASTY – 20/1 > 10/1

Podcast 05/04/24

Bob Champion says….

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