THE WORKS – DAILY ACCESS – 31/05/24

by | May 31, 2024

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To make best use of the information please make sure you check back around 11-30am as by that time I will have highlighted and colour-coded the OMMS and Rated races, with Scribblings attached to each rated race.

TODAY’S TURF RATINGS

WHAT THE ICONS MEAN….

(X%) NEXT A HORSE’S RATING = TRAINERS RTF %AGE FIGURE (HORSES RUNNING TO FORM)
☠️ = IRISH HORSE RUNNING IN A HANDICAP
✳️ = WINNER ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED
3️⃣ = INDICATES A 3-Y-O IN AN ALL AGED HANDICAP
§ = INDICATES BEST DRAWN RUNNERS
W1, W2 = RUNNING 1ST TIME / 2ND TIME FOLLOWING A WIND-OP
T = TRAVELLED A 300 MILE OR MORE ROUND TRIP TO RACE
H = INDICATES FIRST TIME HEADGEAR
(BF) – INDICATES BEATEN FAVOURITE LAST TIME OUT
❓ = IMPOSSIBLE TO RATE ACCURATELY AS UNEXPOSED OVER HURDLES/FENCES

COLOUR CODING

ORANGE = MOVER (OMM)
PURPLE = STRONG OMM
RED = VERY STRONG OMM
(F) = FLUCTUATING
(D) = DRIFTER
(S) = SOLID ON THE TISSUE
GREY = NR

🏇 DONCASTER 6-45

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 5 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ❓ ✳️ T – ROARIN’ SUCCESS….+14 (67%) – 7/2 > 4/1 > 7/2 > 5/2 > 11/4
  • ✳️ – PISANELLO….±0 (39%) – 33/1 > 14/1
  • ✳️ T- ACHILLEA….-5 (33%) – 12/1 > 14/1
  • ✳️ – THE COOKSTOWN CAFU….-7 (41%) – 16/1 > 12/1
  • ✳️ – NIKOVO….-9 (39%) – 5/2 > 11/4
  • ❓ – TWIRLING….-31 (47%) – 10/3 > 4/1 > 11/2
  • REPERTOIRE….-40 (25%) – 9/1 > 10/1 > 12/1
  • ❓ – ABRUZZO MIA….-40 (44%) – 16/1 > 22/1
  • ❓ – TRIP TO ROME….-40 (50%) – 20/1 > 33/1
  • H – PUMALIN PARK….-40 (100%) – 7/1 > 6/1 > 13/2
  • ❓-  CABRILLO….-40 (52%) – 40/1 > 50/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

This thing is like a blob of something, just sitting there. Nobody wants anything to do with it. I should have left it alone but, too late now, it’s in black and white.

We have six of the field wearing the ❓ icon, which accounts for the punter apathy. My top Rated has been contesting Class 3 races and won one back in July last year. I’ll have a shilling e.w.

UPDATE: Not a lot has gone on here since we last spoke, just a few either fluctuating, or adjusting. It’s not appealing as a betting type of race, that’s for sure. I get a “feeling” when I’m comfortable betting a race and I’m not feeling it. I’ll just watch.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 DONCASTER 7-45

CLASS 3

HISTORY – 4 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ T – SUPREME KING….+8 (40%) – 6/5 > 11/10 > 11/8
  • ANOTHER INVESTMENT….-18 (53%) – 10/1 > 11/1 > 9/1 > 15/2
  • ✳️ T – BE PROUD….-18 (48%) – 11/2 > 10/1
  • 🔥 ✳️ – AMERICAN STAR….-24 (52%) – 33/1 > 22/1 > 12/1
  • HOW IMPRESSIVE….-35 (44%) – 14/1 > 20/1 > 12/1
  • TIGER CRUSADE….-36 (25%) – 10/1 > 6/1 > 7/2 > 5/1
  • RATHBONE….-40 (55%) – 14/1 > 28/1
  • ALJARI….-40 (33%) – 9/1 > 14/1
  • T H – RHYTHM N HOOVES….-40 (30%) – 7/1 > 8/1 > 6/1 > 7/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS AMERICAN STAR

SCRIBBLINGS

Good race. I have a strong top rated favourite but the only horse I’d rule out from winning would be RATHBONE….although I have no idea why they are nibbling away at AMERICAN STAR? Won nothing since 2021.

I’m going to sit on this until later and if I get another update done by 4-00pm, I’ll revisit this.

UPDATE: They have kept going in for AMERICAN STAR….🤷‍♂️ I have no idea why, so I’m leaving this to STAKE MANAGEMENT.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 DONCASTER 8-50

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 1 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • 🔥 ❓ T – GREAT BEDWYN….-2 (40%) – 9/4 > 7/4 > 13/8
  • T – LEXINGTON KINIGHT….-16 (40%) – 15/2 > 10/1 > 17/2
  • ✳️ – BILLY NO MATES….-22 (44%) – 33/1 > 28/1 > 33/1
  • – KARDIA….-23 (60%) – 7/1 > 14/1
  • ✳️ T – BRINGBACKMEMORIES….-29 (29%) – 11/1 > 14/1
  • HALIPHON….-30 (50%) – 25/1 > 18/1 > 16/1
  • CHARGING THUNDER….-34 (39%) – NR
  • KNIGHTSWOOD….-36 (45%) – 15/2 > 10/1 > 15/2
  • – KING OF THE PLAINS….-38 (57%) – 11/4 > 3/1 > 11/4
  • – SONNERIE POWER….-40 (45%) – 18/1 > 33/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

CHARGING THUNDER was trading 6/1 when pulled out so this is definitely another race where I need to keep watching the market, one it has been reformed.

Another race in which a few have the ❓ icon but at least we have another top Rated horse involved with that. I reckon one of those horses wins this and will hopefully have a mast to nail colours to later.

UPDATE: Top Rated is strong but that other ❓ horse next to bottom is also holding up well enough. one of them wins it, if the reformed market is correct.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 CATTERICK 7-55

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 2 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • 🔥 ✳️ – SEANTRABH….+8 (40%) – 7/4 > 11/10 > 10/11
  • ✳️ – ALBEGONE….±0 (38%) – 4/1 > 9/2 > 11/2
  • ✳️ – GLORY FIGHTER….-2 (59%) – 4/1 > 13/2 > 8/1
  • ✳️ – ECCLESIASTICAL….-13 (13%) – 5/1 > 15/2 > 10/1
  • JOJO RABBIT….-35 (52%) – 6/1 > 17/2 > 10/1
  • ✳️ T – PUNCHBOWL FLYER….-40 (60%) – 12/1 > 15/2

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

I cannot recall a rated race where my figures match the market identically before? What can possibly go wrong!

My top three Rated are all CD winners, vital around here….and GLORY FIGHTER took this race last season. His trainer, Paul Midgley has sent four horses for the two previous running’s of this….won with two, placed with two….both winners ridden by the sadly injured Graham Lee.

Market says my top Rated wins.

UPDATE: The market seems even more sure now that my top Rated wins this race. A move for the bottom Rated was not unexpected but it’s e.w. money doing it.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 CATTERICK 9-00

CLASS 5

HISTORY – 5 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – MISTER SOX….-6 (38%) – 9/2 > 10/3 > 7/2
  • H – LANGHOLM….-13 (44%) – 4/1 > 5/1 > 9/2 > 4/1
  • YESTERDAY’S HERO….-37 (46%) – 9/1 > 16/1 > 33/1
  • HARRY’S HALO….-40 (47) – 7/1 > 5/1 > 9/2 > 5/1
  • MERSEA….-40 (47%) – 8/1 > 9/1 > 10/1
  • DICKO THE LEGEND….-40 (33%) – 8/1 > 12/1 > 22/1
  • (BRF)WRECK IT RYLEY….-40 (33%) – 5/2 > 11/4 > 5/2 > 9/4
  • NAMMOS….-40 (47%) – 14/1 > 28/1 > 16/1
  • THREE BEAUZ….-40 (44%) – 16/1 > 33/1 > 40/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

I wasn’t going to bother with this one but then I noted one or two things and the horse I “liked” came out top Rated….and has been supported, too.

We have a BRF and whilst I do like MISTER SOX, he’s 1-16 and a true Class 5/6 critter. Seven placed efforts suggests he prefers to follow the herd and in a race such as this I’ll be dutching Rated horses 1, 2, 4, 7….ok, it’s a profit of around 11% but as the slogan goes…every little helps.

UPDATE: No reason at all to change my mind from the decision made this morning.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 CHEPSTOW 3-00

CLASS 5

HISTORY – 2 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – SOME NIGHTMARE….±0 (60%) – 8/1 > 11/1 > 10/1
  • ✳️ – CONNIE’S ROSE….-7 (56%) – 7/1 > 4/1 – WON 10/3
  • T – MAHARAJAS EXPRESS….-27 (50%) – 8/1 > 7/2 > 9/2
  • HOWZAK….-31 (0%) – 6/1 > 16/1
  • ULTRAMARINE….-32 (40%) – 14/1 > 20/1
  • ✳️ – TREACHEROUS….-38 (67%) – 4/1 > 11/2
  • LEVEL UP….-40 (40%) – 20/1 > 12/1 > 16/1
  • H – BEYOND EQUAL….-40 (29%) – 7/1 > 9/1 > 8/1
  • (BRF) – SARAH’S VERSE….-40 (33%) – 3/1 > 5/2 > 11/4

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS SARAH’S VERSE

SCRIBBLINGS

A pooch of an event. The two winners of this to date have both begun with the letter “s”….I have a BRF that starts with an “s”….STAKE MANAGMENT or nowt.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

OMMS (TURF/ALL WEATHER)

COLOUR CODING

ORANGE = NEW MOVER (MMM)
🔥 PURPLE = STRONG OMM
🔥 🔥 RED = VERY STRONG OMM
PLUM = FLUCTUATING
GREY = NR
RTF%AGE IN BOLD, IN BRACKETS
(EMM) = EARLY MARKET MOVER (BEFORE 9-00PM DAY BEFORE RACING)
(OMM) = OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
(MMM) = MORNING MARKET MOVER
(AMM) = AFTERNOON MARKET MOVER

* HORSES NO LONGER BOLD INDICATE NON-RUNNERS HAVE CAUSED MARKET FLUCTUATIONS.

EPSOM

  • 🔥 (OMM) 2-00 – NEW CHARTER – 9/2 > 7/4 > 13/8
  • (OMM) 2-35 – ORBAAN – 16/1 > 7/1 (SOLID)
  • (OMM) 2-35 – BOPEDRO – 16/1 > 8/1 (SOLID)
  • (MMM) 2-35 – KOY KOY- 7/1 > 5/1
  • (OMM) 3-10 – FEED THE FLAME – 9/2 > 11/4 > 3/1
  • (OMM) 3-45 – DERRY LAD – 12/1 > 6/1 (SOLID)
  • 🔥 (OMM) 3-45 – I STILL HAVE FAITH – 11/1 > 8/1 > 7/1
  • (OMM) 4-30 – YLANG YLANG – 2/1 > 13/8 (SOLID)
  • (MMM) 4-30 – DANCE SEQUENCE – 25/1 > 12/1
  • (OMM) 5-10 – PANDORA’S GIFT – 9/2 > 10/3 – NR
  • (OMM) 5-40 – RHOSCOLYN – 10/1 > 8/1 (SOLID)

CHEPSTOW

  • (MMM) 1-50 – MOUNT TEIDE – 13/8 > 10/11 – WON 4/9
  • 🔥 (OMM) 2-25 – JACQUELINA – 5/2 > 15/8 > 6/4 – WON 5/4
  • (OMM) 2-25 – DARKENED EDGE – 28/1 > 14/1 – NR
  • (EMM) 3-00 – MAHARAJAS EXPRESS – 8/1 > 7/2 (SOLID)
  • (OMM) 3-00 – SARAH’S VERSE – 3/1 > 5/2 > 11/4
  • (EMM) 3-35 – JAMES WEBB – 3/1 > 15/8 (SOLID)
  • 🔥 🔥 (OMM) 4-45 – MASONBROOK MEADOW – 8/1 > 9/2 > 4/1
  • (MMM) 5-15 – SONNET STAR – 12/1 > 15/2

CARLISLE

  • 🔥 (OMM) 2-50 – ELEGANT ERIN – 10/3 > 11/4 > 9/4 – 2ND 7/4
  • (MMM) 2-50 – ISLE OF DREAMS – 16/1 > 8/1
  • 🔥 (EMM) 3-25 – EDGEWATER DRIVE – 40/1 > 14/1 > 11/1 > 9/1 – WON 13/2
  • (EMM) 4-00 – ROBERTO CARO – 9/2 > 2/1 > 9/4 > 11/4
  • (OMM) 4-40 – SHANDY STAR – 16/1 > 10/1 (SOLID)
  • (MMM) 4-40 – DARBUCKS – 4/1 > 11/4

DONCASTER

  • NO EMMS
  • 🔥 (OMM) 6-15 – BRINDLEY – 50/1 > 20/1 > 14/1 (W)
  • (MMM) 6-15 – AMPHIUS – 7/2 > 11/4 > 9/4 > 11/4
  • (MMM) 6-15 – SWORD – 6/1 > 3/1 > 9/2 > 7/2
  • (OMM) 6-45 – PISANELLO – 33/1 > 14/1 (SOLID)
  • 🔥 (OMM) 7-15 – JUNGLE MAC – 16/1 > 9/1 > 6/1 (SOLID)
  • (OMM) 7-45 – TIGER CRUSADE – 10/1 > 6/1 > 7/2 > 5/1
  • (MMM/AMM) 7-45 – AMERICAN STAR – 33/1 > 22/1 > 12/1
  • (OMM) 8-15 – MONSIEUR MELEE – 11/2 > 4/1 > 9/2 > 7/2
  • 🔥 (MMM) 8-15 – IT’S NOT RISKY – 20/1 > 12/1 > 8/1
  • (AMM) 8-15 – TURING – 33/1 > 14/1
  • (OMM) 8-50 – GREAT BEDWYN – 9/4 > 7/4
  • (OMM) 8-50 – HALIPHON – 25/1 > 18/1

CATTERICK

  • NO EMMS
  • (OMM) 6-55 – PORT AND STARBURD – 6/1 > 7/2 > 11/4 > 4/1
  • 🔥 (MMM) 6-55 – LADY BOUQUET – 13/2 > 9/2 > 10/3
  • (AMM) 6-55 – DANDY FITZ – 15/2 > 9/2
  • (OMM) 7-25 – PERIPETEIA – 3/1 > 9/4 (SOLID)
  • (MMM) 7-25 – PERFECT ARCH – 10/1 > 7/1
  • (AMM) 7-25 – PERFECT ARCH – 14/1 > 15/2
  • 🔥 (MMM) 7-55 – SEANTRABH – 7/4 > 11/10 > 10/11 (BF)
  • (AMM) 7-55 – PUNCHBOWL FLYER – 12/1 > 15/2
  • (AMM) 8-25 – ROYAL JUSTICE – 2/1 > 11/8
  • (MMM) 9-00 – HARRY’S HALO – 7/1 > 5/1 (BF)
  • (AMM) 9-00 – WRECK IT RYLEY – 3/1 > 9/4
  • (AMM) 9-00 – NAMMOS – 28/1 > 16/1

Podcast 05/04/24

Bob Champion says….

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