THE WORKS – DAILY ACCESS – 05/07/24

by | Jul 4, 2024

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To make best use of the information please make sure you check back around 11-30am as by that time I will have highlighted and colour-coded the OMMS and Rated races, with Scribblings attached to each rated race.

TODAY’S TURF RATINGS

WHAT THE ICONS MEAN….

(X%) NEXT A HORSE’S RATING = TRAINERS RTF %AGE FIGURE (HORSES RUNNING TO FORM)
☠️ = IRISH HORSE RUNNING IN A HANDICAP
✳️ = WINNER ON THE GOING AS CURRENTLY DESCRIBED
3️⃣ = INDICATES A 3-Y-O IN AN ALL AGED HANDICAP
§ = INDICATES BEST DRAWN RUNNERS
W1, W2 = RUNNING 1ST TIME / 2ND TIME FOLLOWING A WIND-OP
T = TRAVELLED A 300 MILE OR MORE ROUND TRIP TO RACE
H = INDICATES FIRST TIME HEADGEAR
(BF) – INDICATES BEATEN FAVOURITE LAST TIME OUT
❓ = IMPOSSIBLE TO RATE ACCURATELY AS UNEXPOSED OVER HURDLES/FENCES

COLOUR CODING

ORANGE = MOVER (OMM)
PURPLE = STRONG OMM
RED = VERY STRONG OMM
(F) = FLUCTUATING
(D) = DRIFTER
(S) = SOLID ON THE TISSUE
GREY = NR

🏇 SANDOWN 3-05

CLASS 2

HISTORY – 10 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – DREAM COMPOSER….+9 (50%) – 2/1 > 9/4 > 7/4
  • ✳️ – EQUILATERAL….+4 (61%) – 4/1 > 5/1 > 9/2
  • 🔥 ✳️ T – TEES SPIRIT….-2 (30%) – 10/1 > 6/1 > 5/1
  • 3️⃣ – GRACEFUL THUNDER….-8 (52%) – 10/3 > 9/2
  • NAVELLO….-35 (52%) – 4/1 > 15/2
  • EXISTENT….-40 (33%) – 10/1 > 7/1 > 15/2

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS GRACEFUL THUNDER

SCRIBBLINGS

Top three looks the sensible dutch to me. Of the 10 running’s I have looked at, three year olds have taken just three of them and with my top three all having the ✳️ icon and one now hot in the market, that’ll do.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 SANDOWN 5-25

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 10 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • 3️⃣ – ALMUNDENA….+8 (55%) – 10/1 > 12/1
  • ✳️ – AIKHAL….-27 (45%) – 8/1 > 12/1
  • T – TARITINO….-35 (0%) – 3/1 > 4/1
  • ✳️ T – LUSAKA….-35 (46%) – 14/1 > 20/1
  • WHISPERING ROYAL….-35 (75%) – 11/2 > 6/1
  • ❓ 3️⃣ – COCK AND BULL….-36 (45%) – 9/2 > 11/4
  • SIMIYAAN….-40 (50%) – 12/1 > 14/1
  • 3️⃣ T – LOVE SAFARI….-40 (48%) – 3/1 > 7/2
  • H – HURTLE WALLOP….-40 (23%) – 25/1 > 33/1 > 20/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS COCK AND BULL

SCRIBBLINGS

Four runs on turf, a CD winner, the only runner for money since this market opened, and veery much responsible for the “blue” highlighting. We have had four previous 3-y-o winners of this and none has returned a bigger SP than 11/2, two were winning favourites and there have only been three of those in the last 10 years.

Rated horses 3, 6, 8 looks a dutch….but COCK AND BULL looks the most likely winner.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 DONCASTER 2-05

CLASS 5

HISTORY – 3 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – DOUGIES DREAM….+5 (48%) – 7/1 > 9/1 > 7/1
  • ✳️ – PANAMA CITY….-2 (100%) – 8/1 > 25/1
  • ✳️ – BEYLERBEYI….-5 (50%) – 5/4 > 5/6
  • ✳️ – YOUNG FIRE….-5 (63%) – 5/1 > 6/1 > 5/1
  • ❓ – THANKS DAD….-26 (68%) – 8/1 > 7/1 > 15/2
  • 3️⃣ H – LOVE WARRIOR….-40 (48%) – 7/1 > 11/1
  • 3️⃣ – STRATOCRACY….-40 (50%) – 22/1 > 12/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS STRATOCRACY

SCRIBBLINGS

Looks a “gimme” on the tissue and the three year olds look weak. I have no idea what has happened to PANAMA CITY this morning but someone clearly does!

One of 1, 3, 4 most likely wins here but THANKS DAD has only seen turf once, seen a racecourse four times….and makes handicap debut for a gambling yard…watch the market!

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 DONCASTER 3-15

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 0 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • 🔥 3️⃣ – CAMBRIA LEGEND….-8 (71%) – 4/1 > 5/2 > 7/4
  • 3️⃣ ✳️ T – CHATURANGA….-29 (28%) – 11/4 > 7/2
  • STRESSFREE….-30 (63%) – 13/2 > 8/1
  • VISIBILITY….-34 (68%) – 9/1 > 7/1 > 8/1
  • ✳️ – MASAKELA….-35 (44%) – 14/1 > 16/1
  • T – NAP HAND….-36 (75%) – 10/1 > 18/1
  • LIGHT SPEED….-37 (33%) – 9/1 > 20/1
  • ARCON….-40 (36%) – 8/1 > 14/1
  • 3️⃣ – PATH TO DUBAI….-40 (62%) – 10/1 > 16/1
  • QAASID….-40 (46%) – 10/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

My top four rated are top four on the tissue, in the correct order….and my top Rated -y-o has been smashed up this morning. Hopefully, my work here is done!

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 DONCASTER 3-50

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 3 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – SQUEALER….+5 (48%) – 7/2 > 7/1
  • 🔥 3️⃣ ✳️ – MON NA SLIEVE….-7 (48%) – 6/1 > 4/1 > 7/2
  • ✳️ – LOOKING FOR LYNDA….-8 (49%) – 6/1 > 4/1 > 6/1
  • ✳️ – NIGHT ON EARTH….-14 (50%) – 20/1 > 10/1
  • 3️⃣ ✳️ W2 – COVER POINT….-26 (46%) – 14/1 > 22/1
  • 3️⃣ ✳️ T H – KYLIAN….-29 (28%) – 4/1 > 6/1
  • ALLIGATOR ALLEY….-30 (63%) – 13/2 > 6/1 > 7/1
  • 🔥 – BRAVE NATION….-38 (45%) – 7/1 > 5/1 > 7/2
  • INTERVENTION….-40 (61%) – 25/1 > 14/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

This market has gone a bit bonkers since I finalised the OMMS section, as you’ll see if you compare and contrast!

I definitely want that “flaming 3-y-o” onside, I feel “safe”….enough….dropping my top rated, LOOKING FOR LYNDA is always supported but a “loser”….will win one day, when the stars are aligned….and I’ll lose.

NIGHT ON EARTH will go off like stink and lead until….?….some seem to feel he will not get collared today.

BRAVE NATION….was the mover last night and has not stopped.

INTERVENTION…owned by a few guys that like a bet, trained by a bloke that lands them a few, too. Won four on the bounce at the end of last year, all on sand and has not won on turf for two years.

I’ll dutch 2, 4, 8

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 DONCASTER 4-25

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 8 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • 3️⃣ ✳️ – ANGEL SHARED….-17 (67%)
  • 3️⃣ – HARVANNA….-21 (49%)
  • T – MISS ATTITUDE….-22 (45%)
  • ✳️ – ANGLE LAND….-24 (75%) – NR
  • ✳️ – PRINCESS KARINE….-28 (25%)
  • CONSERVATIONIST….-32 (48%) – NR
  • BELLA KOPELLA….-38 (48%)
  • 3️⃣ – GAME BREAKER….-40 (49%)

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

Two non-runners, colour-coding now not possible.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 DONCASTER 5-00

CLASS 5

HISTORY – 8 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – ALSEEYERTHERE….-4 (67%) – 5/2 > 11/4 > 9/4
  • ✳️ – BIPLANE….-9 (0%) – 13/2 > 12/1
  • 3️⃣ T – BELLA TASLINA….-10 (37%) – 6/1 > 9/2
  • ✳️ T – INANNA….-19 (50%) – 12/1 > 20/1 > 10/1
  • CREATE….-26 (68%) – 16/1 > 20/1 > 16/1
  • 3️⃣ – JUST RITA….-33 (58%) – 9/2 > 7/2 > 5/1
  • 3️⃣ – SOVEREIGN QUEEN….-40 (48%) – 8/1 > 18/1
  • 3️⃣ – RAPIDO GIRL….-40 (43%) – 6/1
  • 3️⃣ – ROMANTIC TALE….-40 (52%) – 14/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS JUST RITA

SCRIBBLINGS

Eight previous running’s, seven of them won by 3-y-0’s….five winning favourites, nothing has ever returned an SP bigger than 5/1, and that was the very first winner of the race….since then, nothing bigger than 4/1.

I’m therefore the king one of Rated horses 1, 3, 6….with my eye very much drawn to BELLA TASLINA, who makes handicap debut today.

Scary though, isn’t it!

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 BEVERLEY 6-00

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 10 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – L/M-H

  • ✳️ – GOOD EARTH….+12 (50%) – 6/1 > 7/2 > 4/1
  • ✳️ § – EMERALDS PRIDE….+10 (33%) – 4/1 > 11/2
  • 3️⃣ § – MARKAKOL….+10 (53%) – 12/1 > 11/2
  • ✳️ § – VENTURA EXPRESS….+8 (58%) – 6/1 > 7/1 > 5/1
  • ✳️ – KHABIB….+8 (100%) – 9/2 > 5/1 > 9/2
  • 3️⃣ ✳️ § – MIDNIGHT LIR….±0 (33%) – 14/1 > 25/1
  • 3️⃣ ✳️ – TRAVEL CANDY….-2 (44%) – 16/1 > 33/1
  • 3️⃣ – SHOWHOUND….-11 (47%) – 9/1 > 20/1
  • § – JILL’S JUNGLE….-25 (18%) – 20/1 > 33/1 > 20/1
  • H – GLENDOWN….-29 (44%) – 25/1 > 50/1
  • § – DIGITAL….-30 (24%) – 7/2 > 11/2

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS

I liked my top Rated (still do), but the 10 draw is a right old ball and chain. I’m of a mind to dutch Rated horses 2, 3, 4….confident? Nope….minimal staking.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 HAYDOCK 7-53

CLASS 4

HISTORY – 7 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – M-L-H

  • 3️⃣ § – SEA THE DREAM….+10 (45%) – 11/4 > 10/3 > 3/1
  • ✳️ – TANMAWWY….+8 (20%) – 16/1 > 25/1
  • ✳️ § – BAY BREEZE….-12 (44%) – 12/1 > 33/1
  • ✳️ – CAPITAL GUARANTEE….-12 (63%) – 22/1 > 16/1 > 25/1
  • ❓ 3️⃣ H – VICARIO….-16 (70%) – 5/2 > 7/4
  • ✳️ § – MASTER ZOFFANY….-19 (47%) – 11/1 > 16/1 > 10/1
  • § H – PJANOO….-20 (60%) – 12/1 > 18/1
  • 3️⃣ § T H – TOPANGA….-27 (63%) – 14/1 > 20/1
  • AALTO….-31 (50%) – 4/1 > 9/2 > 7/2
  • LOVE DE VEGA….-40 (48%) – 7/1 > 14/1
  • § – ORBITAL CHIME….-40 (50%) – 33/1 > 25/1 > 28/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS VICARIO

SCRIBBLINGS

AALTO was a top Rated 40/1 runner up in May….he will win soon.

However, this market is very firmly pointing at the pair of 3-y-o’s….VICARIO has only seen turf twice and action of any kind four times….a beaten favourite last time out, he’s looking “obvious”.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

🏇 NEWBURY 9-00

CLASS 5

HISTORY – 4 PREVIOUS RUNNING’S

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE

  • ✳️ – GENTLE ELLEN….-6 (33%) – 6/1 > 5/1 > 11/2
  • ✳️ – NAVAL ACADEMY….-21 (18%) – 9/4 > 10/3
  • H – UNSUNG HERO….-26 (20%) – 25/1 > 14/1 > 18/1
  • 🔥 ✳️ – KING OF WAR….-40 (63%) – 5/2 > 2/1 > 13/8
  • MAX STRIPES….-40 (33%) – 20/1 > 28/1
  • 🔥 – STREAK LIGHTNING….-40 (24%) – 9/2 > 10/3 > 3/1

ASTECH GOLD STAKE MANAGEMENT = DUTCH TOP THREE PLUS KING OF WAR

SCRIBBLINGS

The only Rated race without 3-y-o’s, and we have a pair “hot”….and I felt my top pair were “right” when I had finished this off? They have only shifted in the way they have because of the money for the two in 🔥’s

KING OF WAR fits the recent trend I have mentioned a few times this season….horses changing yard, two or three runs, land a touch.

The bottom Rated horse has not won on turf since 2021 and is a genuine all weather plodder.

Rated horses 1, 2, 4….dutch.

DUTCH: RATED HORSES –
20/80:
EXOTICS:

OMMS (TURF/ALL WEATHER)

COLOUR CODING

ORANGE = NEW MOVER (MMM)
🔥 PURPLE = STRONG OMM
🔥 🔥 RED = VERY STRONG OMM
PLUM = FLUCTUATING
GREY = NR
RTF%AGE IN BOLD, IN BRACKETS
(EMM) = EARLY MARKET MOVER (BEFORE 9-00PM DAY BEFORE RACING)
(OMM) = OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
(MMM) = MORNING MARKET MOVER
(AMM) = AFTERNOON MARKET MOVER

☠️ = IRISH PIRATE!

3️⃣ = 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

* HORSES NO LONGER BOLD INDICATE NON-RUNNERS HAVE CAUSED MARKET FLUCTUATIONS.

SANDOWN

  • 🔥 (OMM) 2-30 – IT AIN’T TWO – 11/1 > 13/2 > 4/1
  • (OMM) 3-05 – EXISTANT – 10/1 > 7/1 > 15/2
  • (MMM) 3-05 – TEES SPIRIT – 10/1 > 6/1
  • (EMM) 3-40 – WINDLORD – 5/1 > 3/1
  • (OMM) 4-50 – RUN FOR OSCAR – 6/1 > 3/1 > 6/1
  • (MMM) 4-50 – TRUESHAN – 5/2 > 13/8
  • (MMM) 4-50 – NIGHT SPARKLE – 7/1 > 9/2
  • (MMM) 4-50 – MISS CYNTHIA – 28/1 > 16/1
  • (MMM) 4-50 – COCK AND BULL – 9/2 > 11/4

DONCASTER

  • (EMM) 2-05 – STRATOCRACY – 22/1 > 12/1
  • (OMM) 2-05 – BEYLERBEYI – 5/4 > 5/6
  • 🔥 (OMM) 2-40 – CROWN OF INDIA – 7/2 > 11/4 > 15/8 (H)
  • 🔥 (OMM) 3-15 – CAMBRIA LEGEND – 4/1 > 5/2 > 7/4
  • 🔥 (EMM) 3-50 – BRAVE NATION – 7/1 > 5/1 > 7/2
  • (OMM) 3-50 – LOOKING FOR LYNDA – 6/1 > 4/1 > 11/2
  • (OMM) 3-50 – MON NA SLIEVE – 6/1 > 4/1 (SOLID)
  • (OMM) 5-35 – SHOWTIME MAHOMES – 5/1 > 3/1

BEVERLEY

  • (OMM) 5-30 – BEAUTY QUEEN – 13/2 > 9/2 > 7/2 > 4/1
  • (MMM) 5-30 – PERFECT PART – 10/11 > 4/6 > 4/5
  • (MMM) 5-30 – BACOR – 9/2 > 3/1
  • (MMM) 5-30 – NEYTIRI TE TSKAHA – 12/1 > 13/2
  • (OMM) 6-00 – GOOD EARTH – 6/1 > 7/2 > 4/1
  • (MMM) 6-00 – MARKAKOL – 12/1 > 11/2
  • 🔥 🔥 (EMM) 6-35 – BELTANE – 15/2 > 4/1 > 7/2 > 3/1
  • 🔥 (EMM) 7-45 – WALTER HARTRIGHT – 11/8 > 10/11 > 4/5
  • (MMM) 7-45 – GREY NYLE – 12/1 > 6/1
  • (EMM) 8-20 – SOLD THE DREAM – 11/2 > 3/1
  • (OMM) 8-20 – VONDELPARK – 33/1 > 14/1
  • (MMM) 8-50 – LIBERTY BREEZE – 4/1 > 9/4

HAYDOCK

  • NO EMMS
  • (OMM) 6-08 – ELEMENTAL EYE – 11/1 > 5/1 > 8/1
  • (MMM) 6-43 – SPANISH VEGA – 7/1 > 5/1 (BF)
  • (MMM) 8-25 – AMSTERDAM – 3/1 > 5/2 (BF)
  • (MMM) 9-00 – KING OF WAR – 5/2 > 2/1 (BF)
  • (MMM) 9-00 – STREAK LIGHTNING – 9/2 > 10/3 (H)

Podcast 05/04/24

Bob Champion says….

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