Wednesday , October 21 2020

AG 3-Y-O STATS

Astech Gold. 3 year old stats so far!

254 selections monitored produced 45 winners and 209 losers

Selections whose SP was 10/1 or more produced 2 winners

Selections whose SP was in the range 7/1 up to 10/1 produced 1 winner

Selections whose SP was under 7/1 produced 42 winners

We then removed all selections 7/1 or greater which reduced the number of selections to 149.

This then produced 42 winners in 149 selections giving a 28.19% strike rate.

The longest losing sequences only backing 3 year olds was 6.

The next losing sequence was 5 which occurred twice.

We then examined further the 149 selections.

Of those 149: 72 were in the top 3 rated and produced 22 winners giving a 30.56% strike rate

Of those 149: 15 were bottom rated favourites and produced 7 winners giving a 46.67% strike rate

Therefore for investment purposes we can ignore any 3 year olds that appear in the top 3 rated or are bottom rated favourites as the guidelines show how these should be included when considering the dutch bets.

We then examined the remaining 62, 3 year olds: 149-72-15.

Of those 62, 15 were winners = 24.19% strike rate.

The guidance for considering the inclusion of these ‘other’ 3 year olds to form dutch 4 bets, are as follows:

1) Only consider those with an SP of less than 7/1.

2) Include any 3 year old which is not included in top 3 rated or is a bottom rated favourite ( as they are already covered) and include as a dutch 4.

3) If more than one 3 year old qualifies in addition to any that may be in the top 3 or are a bottom rated favourite, then only consider the lower odds selection.

Note: These stats will be updated as more information is collected.